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Debt ceiling | Evaluating probabilities & risk

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“Shun no toil to make yourself remarkable by some talent or other; yet do not devote yourself to one branch exclusively. Strive to get clear notions about all. Give up no science entirely; for science is but one.”

What's the probability of a US default?

It's difficult to determine how much the chances of a default are priced into the markets. Some market participants believe that the likelihood of a deal on the debt ceiling passing through Congress is already fully priced in. Others, s...


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Debt ceiling | Evaluating probabilities & risk

We perform a very simple probabilistic scenario analysis to estimate ex-post S&P 500 trade ranges.