July 21, 2021

Macro

EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges

BY Teneo Macro

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( 5 mins)

Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face.

Below are some of this week’s key developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.

HIGHLIGHTS

Vaccine rollout

  • In Brazil, most states have started to vaccinate people in their 30s. The health minister promised to vaccinate all adults with one dose by September 2021. However, the current daily rate of administered doses is not high enough to hit this target.
  • Results from Chile‘s clinical study of the Sinovac vaccine show that only 45 out of 2,300 subjects tested positive for Covid-19 after receiving a double dose of the Sinovac vaccine; three of these required hospital treatment. However, the study suggests that a third booster shot could be necessary given the vaccine’s declining efficacy.
  • Colombia expects the first delivery of the Moderna vaccine to arrive by the end of July; the government has signed an agreement with Moderna for 10mn doses.
  • In Hungary, vaccine rollout remains slow with only around 30,000 first doses administered over the past week. Nearly 55% of the population have been fully immunized to date. In August, the country will start offering third vaccine doses to everyone inoculated four months ago or earlier. Covid-19 vaccines will become mandatory for healthcare employees.
  • The outlook for Kenya‘s vaccine rollout, which had plateaued at a vaccination rate of 1.93% of the population due to COVAX delays, is improving very slightly as Western donations increase, with 1.7mn US-donated Pfizer-BioNTech doses expected shortly.
  • While serious unrest disrupted South Africa‘s vaccine rollout last week, by 19 July daily inoculation rates had reached 223,969 shots – close to officials’ daily target of 250,000 doses – and the inoculation campaign looks set to accelerate.
  • Peru is currently offering vaccines to people in their 40s; vaccination for people in their 30s should start in August and for those in their 20s in September. The 20-39 age group represents 33% of the total population, making it the largest group to vaccinate.

Vaccine procurement

  • Argentina has reached two new vaccine supply agreements with CanSino (5.4mn doses to start arriving by August at the latest) and Moderna (20mn doses to arrive Q1 2022 though US government donations could arrive earlier).
  • In Mexico, 17.5% of the total number of vaccine doses that the country has received have been produced and/or bottled locally; Mexican laboratories are involved in producing two vaccines – CanSino and AstraZeneca (AZ).
  • Israel reached a deal with Pfizer-BioNTech for fresh provision of immunizations by early August if authorities decide to expand their administration of booster shots to a wider segment of the population than those with health conditions.
  • Nigeria expects the first major vaccine deliveries since March by late July or early August, including 3.9mn doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine donated by the US government via COVAX and 3.9mn AZ shots via the regular COVAX channel. Another 3.6mn Pfizer-BioNTech doses are expected, again through COVAX, in Q3.
  • Due to delays in the delivery of vaccines to certain regions, Russia will conduct an inventory of vaccine volumes across the country by 21 July. The country’s authorities rule out imports of foreign vaccines.
  • A leaked letter reveals that Thailand had substantially under-ordered its official supplies from the domestic licensee of AZ, resulting in domestic criticism and Bangkok needing to secure new supplies.

Infections and new variants

  • In Brazil, the Delta variant started to spread. Until 19 June, 96 cases were identified, but this figure is expected to increase in the upcoming weeks as the genetic processing of new Covid cases is carried out.
  • The Delta variant accounts for 47% of all new infections in Poland. However, the overall caseload in the country remains very low.
  • In the Czech Republic, the Delta variant accounts for around 70-80% of all new infections. This week, the country has also reported the first case of the Delta plus strain.
  • Following the discovery of the first Delta variant cases, Nigeria has put six states on a ‘red alert’ list allowing authorities to restrict celebrations and gatherings to a minimum.
  • In Russia, the nationwide caseload is stabilizing at around 24,500 per day. However, daily deaths are still rising and are now about 800. The virus is now spreading rapidly across many regions, while the capital Moscow has started to ease restrictions due to falling cases and rapid vaccination rates.

Vaccine diplomacy

  • Due to sluggish vaccination rates at home and approaching vaccine expiration dates, Poland plans to sell several million vaccine doses to non-EU member states in eastern and Southern Europe.
  • China is set to supply Myanmar with a total of six million doses in July and August, with 4mn to be purchased and another 2mn to be donated by Beijing.
  • The US government, in partnership with the African Union and COVAX, has donated 25mn of Covid-19 vaccines to 49 African countries. Burkina Faso, Djibouti and Ethiopia will be the first countries to receive their share of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccines. The doses will be delivered through COVAX, the WHO-backed vaccine distribution initiative.
  • Vietnam has produced its first test batch of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, but output in volume may still be weeks away until its production processes have been fully vetted. Vietnam is struggling with vaccine supplies due to the slow development of its own vaccine and an underestimation of its import needs.
2021-07-21_EMERGING-MARKETS-Covid-19-Vaccination-Strategies-and-Challenges

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