TURKEY: A rate hike and a narrow path ahead

While a rate hike is in the pocket, a return to a more conventional and transparent economic policy is uncertain. As ever, President Tayyip Erdogan remains the key determining factor, else is choreography. Leaving aside Erdogan, the path ahead for Turkey is a long and narrow one, mainly due to Covid-19, the dire state of the economy and key institutions. Ankara’s belligerent foreign policy will remain a source of uncertainty. A rate hike by Turkey’s central bank (TCMB) at its 19 November meeting is a given. The entity of the rake hike will matter but there is a good cha