Alan Brazil SOM Macro

Covid-19 – Part 3: The Fall Of The USD & The Rise Of EM

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June 16, 2020 (Updated) Alan Brazil Step 1: Macro Theme: The Sell-off In Commodity EM Assets Is A Buying Opportunity EM x-China equities have lagged the rebound in US and China equities EM x-China FX are at historical lows on a real basis Step 2: Fundamental Economic Framework EM economies will be harder hit than DM economies from the Covid-19 lockdowns The fall in commodity prices adds to the downward pressures on EM Capital outflows from EM is almost twice as large as in previous EM risk-off events EM Covid cases and deaths seem to be accelerating vs DM countries St
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