BRAZIL: Significant delays but on the right track despite Bolsonaro

● Brazil has been doing the right thing to stem the spread of the coronavirus but resistance from President Jair Bolsonaro remains. ● A mega-package of stimulus and support measures has been announced but implementation is delayed due to lack of coordination. ● Other administration officials continue to deflect Bolsonaro’s Covid-19 denialist tendencies but the risk of political confusion remains. Brazil has 6,931 Covid-19 cases and 244 deaths confirmed as of 2 April. There has been a raft of measures to stem the spread of the virus. However, Brazil stands out for having a president that negates the gravity of the outbreak even when he tries to amend, on a piecemeal basis, his words and actions. Internationally, the president has been widely recognized for his ineffective leadership as well as for being a leader of the Covid-19-denial movement. Domestically, self-quarantining protestors banging pots and pans on a daily basis from balconies and windows demand his resignation. Stimulus and more The good news is that despite being president, Bolsonaro has not managed to command his own government to tackle the emergency according to his innermost instincts. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes has, after some initial hesitation, changed gears and spearheaded a package of measures combining fiscal and monetary stimulus measures alongside support for the business sector, employees, individuals and families. The package also includes the freeing of funds aimed at securing the best healthcare response to the outbreak. Brazil has been under a state of calamity since 20 March, which has allowed the government to override strict annual fiscal target obligations. The total value of the package is estimated at BRL 750bn (USD 168bn), of which 27% (BRL 200bn or USD 45bn) is directed at the most vulnerable. There have been implementation delays at times, as in the case of a minimum assistance to informal and autonomous workers, where the government preferred the more burdensome path of passing a constitutional amendment in Congress instead of just issuing an executive order. The health response Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta remains detached from the presidential “aura” of denialism and politicking, despite occasional adjustments to his speech when mentioning the president. He has been emphatic of the need for social distancing, especially as Brazil starts on the upward trajectory of the Covid-19 curve and signs of personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages emerge. Unlike the president, he has praised governors and mayors who have, with just a few minor exceptions, followed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Sao Paulo state accounts for 44% of cases and close to 70% of the deaths confirmed in the country. The state has been the first to react, declaring a state of calamity on 20 March and a full quarantine four days later. Rio de Janeiro state accounts for 12% of all cases and deaths in the country. Most of the ire and reproach from Bolsonaro is addressed to the governors of these two states, both of whom are seen as having presidential aspirations for 2022. Narrative strategy Bolsonaro’s revisionist narrative and attitude towards the pandemic has put a lot of pressure on the structure of his own government, prompting a revision of the official communication strategy aimed at containing the obvious self-inflicted damage to the president’s image and maintain the Covid-19 containment strategy on the right track. As president, Bolsonaro cannot revoke sub-federal confinements or quarantines by decree but his rhetoric quickly came to be perceived by his own inner circle of military officials as strongly prejudicial to the war-like effort necessary to handle the outbreak. The strategy was four-fold: (1) to separate the president from his ministers in press conferences; (2) to surround Mandetta with other ministers in his daily press conference so as to make his leadership of the process less conspicuous, thus assuaging Bolsonaro’s evident jealousy; (3) to introduce as press conference moderator the Chief-of-Staff of the Presidency, General Braga Neto, who has since controlled the flow of questions and answers and prevented politics from dominating the discussion; (4) to preserve Bolsonaro for speeches on national television. The strategy has hardly paid off vis-a-vis the population since pot-banging protests persist. Also, the president has now officially changed his “personal” campaign on twitter from “Brazil cannot stop” to “Nobody left behind” – a last-ditch effort to restore credibility. Stay the course It is unlikely that the government changes tune and starts to go down the path of greater sanitary risk when the infection curve is just starting to go up significantly. The difficult part of the present equation is to imagine how to lock that strategy in place if Mandetta were to be fired by the president. Yesterday, 1 April, Bolsonaro had a meeting with medical experts to talk about the effects of anti-malarial drug Chloroquine on the coronavirus and Mandetta was not invited. The health minister reacted by saying that his focus during the pandemic was technical and scientific, while others chose to engage in politics instead. Bolsonaro’s resentment when the limelight is focused on others has been a major feature of his behavior and should continue to make matters more difficult than necessary. Worse yet, the president prefers to plot against his own ministers, as opposed to just firing them, hoping to force them to resign and thus looking less autocratic – particularly in the case of “star” ministers such as Mandetta or Sergio Moro (Justice). Having such an attitude in the middle of a pandemic only creates more confusion, delays and, consequently, deaths.

April 2, 2020

BRAZIL: Significant delays but on the right track despite Bolsonaro

BY Mario Marconini

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BRAZIL: Significant delays but on the right track despite Bolsonaro

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