JAPAN: Abe warns of “national crisis” as cases of Covid-19 spike in Tokyo

● The national and Tokyo metropolitan governments are on alert after the number of new cases in Tokyo increased by more than 40 a day for two consecutive days. ● While the capital region has been largely spared, if the outbreak were to spread it could be the impetus for the invocation of emergency powers granted to the government in recent legislation. ● A surge of new cases could lead to renewed criticism of the Abe government for insufficient vigilance regarding the pandemic. The Abe government is on an increasingly vigilant footing after Tokyo discovered 41 and 47 new cases of Covid-19 on 25 and 26 March respectively, many of which have not been traced to an identifiable source. The greater Tokyo region, home to nearly 40 million people across five prefectures, has thus far been spared a serious outbreak, but a major outbreak in the region would strain Japan’s medical infrastructure and could fundamentally scramble the politics of the outbreak in Japan. Both the Tokyo Metropolitan government and the Abe government have stepped up their preparations to contain the spread of Covid-19 in the capital region. On Wednesday, 25 March, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike warned of the potentially explosive spread of the illness and requested that the city’s residents refrain from going out at night for the remainder of the week and refrain from leaving their homes except for essential reasons over the coming weekend. After a conference call with Koike Thursday, 26 March, the governors of neighboring Chiba, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Yamanashi prefectures agreed to make similar requests of their residents, many of whom commute to Tokyo for work or entertainment. Koike also met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday for consultations on how to manage an explosive increase of new cases. Accordingly, on Thursday, after Abe’s expert advisory panel warned of a “high possibility” that the outbreak will spread, the administration took new steps to contain Covid-19. Consistent with the revised pandemic influenza law, the government established a new countermeasures headquarters (CHQ) headed by the prime minister that will now be responsible for managing the outbreak. Although the Abe government has insisted that it will proceed cautiously when it comes to using the law’s new state of emergency provisions – even as opposition lawmakers have suggested that it may be time to invoke them – standing up the CHQ is an important step in the direction of an emergency declaration. The CHQ’s first action was to strengthen border controls to prevent new cases spreading from overseas, forbidding entry to anyone who has been in 21 European countries and Iran over the previous 14 days. The CHQ also announced voluntary quarantine requests for arrivals from seven Southeast Asian countries, Israel, Qatar, Bahrain, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and extended existing restrictions on arrivals from China and South Korea to the end of April. Political risks mount again While approval of Abe’s handling of the outbreak has improved after he was criticized for a sluggish and reactive response in the early stages of the crisis – perhaps in large part because it appeared that his government’s approach had contained the outbreak – his political fate remains linked to his crisis management. Abe’s willingness to relax social distancing policies could be a particular liability if the outbreak surges. However, even as the national and Tokyo governments braced for a spike in Covid-19 cases, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said that the government would stick to its plan not to ask schools to remain closed in April. Despite warnings from experts that Japan continues to face a serious situation and the government’s requests for teleworking and event cancellations, it is possible that the public’s vigilance has slackened during cherry-blossom-viewing season, although anecdotally it seems that gatherings were smaller and more subdued than in years past. While several major employers have announced work-from-home policies, many workers have continued to commute in the capital region. It is possible that the Tokyo and national governments will be able to prevent a surge of cases in and around Tokyo, thanks in part to the willing compliance of the public with Koike’s stay-at-home request. (Soon after her announcement, there were signs of stockpiling in retail stores around the metropolis.) Abe himself signaled his earnestness by characterizing the situation as a “national crisis” on Thursday. But if a surge materializes – and spreads across the country – Abe could once again face criticism for complacency even as warning signs gathered and other democracies took increasingly dramatic steps to contain the outbreak. Next steps The key question now is whether the situation deteriorates to the point that Abe must declare a state of emergency in the greater Tokyo region. For now, the CHQ has begun drafting its basic policy for responding the outbreak, which will provide a blueprint for prefectural governors to follow over the coming days. The initial draft reportedly includes a recommendation that governors advise residents to shelter in place – stay home except to shop for food and medical supplies – for up to 21 days. If, however, an expert panel determines that the outbreak is spreading swiftly and nationally, and poses a danger to lives and the economy, the prime minister will then be able to declare a state of emergency in designated areas, which would supersede the basic policy. This would not necessarily empower governors to impose strict lockdowns and curfews – which would run afoul of postwar guarantees of civil liberties – but individuals and businesses would face significant pressure to comply with “requests.” (The law stipulates that private entities and the public “must strive to cooperate” with such requests.) A state of emergency would also suspend other laws to enable the establishment of emergency medical facilities and the requisitioning of medical supplies.

March 26, 2020

JAPAN: Abe warns of “national crisis” as cases of Covid-19 spike in Tokyo

BY Tobias Harris

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March 26, 2020

JAPAN: Abe warns of “national crisis” as cases of Covid-19 spike in Tokyo

BY Tobias Harris

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