COTE D’IVOIRE: President Ouattara moves swiftly to consolidate his legacy

After ruling out a third term for himself and announcing a raft of – mostly limited – constitutional changes on 5 March, President Alassane Ouattara and his Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) moved quickly to keep up the political momentum. On 12 March, Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly was anointed as the ruling party’s presidential candidate for the October election, and on 18 March, parliament passed the constitutional reform. The quick succession of swift and decisive moves puts the opposition at a distinct disadvantage. This will likely be reinforced by the COVID-19 pandemic with its media focus on government action. Yet while Ouattara will step down as president, he is intent to remain in control beyond October. Ouattara’s decision to present Coulibaly as his preferred successor is not unexpected, although the expedited timeline was surprising. The swift elimination of former National Assembly President Guillaume Soro (47) as a presidential candidate might have convinced internal party contenders such as Defense Minister Hamed Bakayoko or Education Minister Albert Toikeusse to shelve their ambitions. Presenting Coulibaly (61) as presidential candidate in March rather than June gives the current MP, who is said to lack widespread popular support, additional time to boost his popularity. By coincidence, the media focus on government actions in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak will reinforce public attention on Coulibaly, who can exploit the opportunity to his advantage. For opposition leader Henri Konan Bedie (85), now by far the oldest potential contender, it will be difficult to maintain his presidential ambitions now that Ouattara has announced his departure. In turn, infighting within his Democratic Party of Cote d’Ivoire (PDCI), the only remaining political force that might be able to throw a spanner in the works of the RHDP, is likely to intensify. Despite his departure, Ouattara is set to remain chairman of the RHDP, which would give him an influential role in deciding ministerial appointees. Besides, as pointed out previously, the most important constitutional change approved by parliament this week gives the next president the right to choose his prime minister after his election. A Putin-Medvedev-style casting of Coulibaly and Ouattara therefore remains on the cards.

March 19, 2020

COTE D’IVOIRE: President Ouattara moves swiftly to consolidate his legacy

BY Malte Liewerscheidt

Report Contents

More by Malte Liewerscheidt

NIGERIA: AFRICOM invitation highlights scale of security challenges

CHAD: President’s death raises specter of civil war

NIGERIA: More of the same from the central bank

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Debt implications of G20/IMF spring meetings

NIGERIA: Tussle over naira devaluation amid grim macroeconomic picture

COTE D’IVOIRE: Implications of Gbagbo’s pending return

NIGERIA: Tussle over naira devaluation amid grim macroeconomic picture

ETHIOPIA: Bondholders might be collateral, not target, of restructuring bid

COTE D’IVOIRE: Succession uncertainty by design

March 19, 2020

COTE D’IVOIRE: President Ouattara moves swiftly to consolidate his legacy

BY Malte Liewerscheidt

Report Contents

Registration

More by Malte Liewerscheidt

NIGERIA: AFRICOM invitation highlights scale of security challenges

CHAD: President’s death raises specter of civil war

NIGERIA: More of the same from the central bank

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Debt implications of G20/IMF spring meetings

NIGERIA: Tussle over naira devaluation amid grim macroeconomic picture

COTE D’IVOIRE: Implications of Gbagbo’s pending return

NIGERIA: Tussle over naira devaluation amid grim macroeconomic picture

ETHIOPIA: Bondholders might be collateral, not target, of restructuring bid

COTE D’IVOIRE: Succession uncertainty by design