COTE D’IVOIRE: Ouattara rules out a third term, but builds in a back door

During his state-of-the-nation speech on 5 March, President Alassane Ouattara ended months of speculation by announcing that he does not intend to run in the presidential election scheduled for 31 October. The announcement appears to remove a key political risk associated with the poll, as running for a third mandate would have been hugely controversial, given the constitution’s two-term limit. However, constitutional changes also outlined during the speech suggest Ouattara might be pondering a Putin-Medvedev style power-rotation instead. Nevertheless, he has yet to reveal his preferred successor. Ouattara publicly dropping the third-term idea after months of uncertainty suggests the president is confident that he remains in control of his party’s internal succession debate. Ouattara also seems to discount the opposition’s ability to pose a credible challenge to the eventual presidential candidate of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP). This view might have been reinforced by former National Assembly President Guillaume Soro’s apparent inability to stage a strong response in the wake of his forced exile in December 2019. In particular, the fact that there have been no army mutinies seems to suggest that Soro’s clout among the armed forces might have diminished. As explained previously, a timely return of former president Laurent Gbagbo is unlikely and would, in any event, hinge on Ouattara’s approval. This leaves the octogenarian ex-president and erstwhile Ouattara ally Henri-Konan Bedie as the only remaining high-profile contender, even though he has yet to confirm his electoral ambitions. Nevertheless, Ouattara’s choice of his preferred successor remains shrouded in secrecy. While commonly thought to be Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly (61), Outtara’s speech emphasized his plan to hand down power to a “young generation,” which raises questions about Coulibaly’s potential candidacy. Imminent constitutional changes outlined on the same occasion, which had generated much prior speculation, appear to be of secondary nature. Neither the re-introduction of an age limit for presidential contenders, nor a repeal of the two-term limit are on the cards. The most far-reaching proposal presented by Ouattara concerns the office of the vice president. Rather than being presented as part of the ticket ahead of the vote, Ouattara’s proposals envisage that the VP should be picked by the president after the poll, though (s)he would need confirmation from the legislative. The intended reform would open the door for Ouattara to remain relevant after the election, as part of a deal with his anointed successor. It could allow him to remain in the background during the campaign and thus lend credence to the idea of generational change, only to appear back in a central executive office after the vote.

March 5, 2020

COTE D’IVOIRE: Ouattara rules out a third term, but builds in a back door

BY Malte Liewerscheidt

Report Contents

More by Malte Liewerscheidt

NIGERIA: AFRICOM invitation highlights scale of security challenges

CHAD: President’s death raises specter of civil war

NIGERIA: More of the same from the central bank

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Debt implications of G20/IMF spring meetings

NIGERIA: Tussle over naira devaluation amid grim macroeconomic picture

COTE D’IVOIRE: Implications of Gbagbo’s pending return

NIGERIA: Tussle over naira devaluation amid grim macroeconomic picture

ETHIOPIA: Bondholders might be collateral, not target, of restructuring bid

COTE D’IVOIRE: Succession uncertainty by design

March 5, 2020

COTE D’IVOIRE: Ouattara rules out a third term, but builds in a back door

BY Malte Liewerscheidt

Report Contents

Registration

More by Malte Liewerscheidt

NIGERIA: AFRICOM invitation highlights scale of security challenges

CHAD: President’s death raises specter of civil war

NIGERIA: More of the same from the central bank

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Debt implications of G20/IMF spring meetings

NIGERIA: Tussle over naira devaluation amid grim macroeconomic picture

COTE D’IVOIRE: Implications of Gbagbo’s pending return

NIGERIA: Tussle over naira devaluation amid grim macroeconomic picture

ETHIOPIA: Bondholders might be collateral, not target, of restructuring bid

COTE D’IVOIRE: Succession uncertainty by design