● President Cyril Ramaphosa has invoked the Disaster Management Act to enforce a nationwide lockdown from 26 March until 16 April to limit the spread of COVID-19.
● Taking its cue from Asian models, the administration is opting for decisive early-stage intervention, in the hope of avoiding a more severe public health and economic disaster down the line.… Read the rest
● The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s rare 100 basis point rate cut today, 19 March, will provide a welcome monetary boost.
● But the fiscal outlook is expected to worsen further, particularly if the anticipated recession and any fiscal stimulus measures combine with a failure to deliver on the government’s promise to cut down the wage bill.… Read the rest
● The fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic will only sharpen the National Treasury’s fiscal dilemmas and weaken South Africa’s odds of holding on to its final investment-grade credit rating.
● Within South Africa’s borders, the number of COVID-19 cases is ticking up, but draconic public health interventions are unlikely, for now.… Read the rest
● Expectations ahead of the budget presentation on 26 February are largely pessimistic in the context of deteriorating economic growth and skyrocketing public debt.
● Finance Minister Tito Mboweni will try – against all odds – to avert the loss of South Africa’s final investment-grade credit rating.… Read the rest
