● Given declining imports from the US in the first quarter, China appears unlikely to meet the ambitious purchase commitments in the phase-one trade deal.
● US President Donald Trump likely prefers to continue casting the deal as an achievement, and the pandemic offers an obvious force majeure-style excuse for China’s missing the targets.… Read the rest
● In a week of drawn-out oil production negotiations, Saudi Arabia managed to preserve OPEC+ and seemingly deliver a win to US President Donald Trump.
● Sustained low oil prices will squeeze reform and modernization efforts in Saudi Arabia, but it will not end them.… Read the rest
● The US Commerce Department issued new rules designed to deny China’s military access to advanced technology.
● But the impact will extend far beyond military users, since US hardliners view all Chinese civilian companies as potential agents of the military.… Read the rest
● Following a presidential phone call, US and Chinese officials have stopped openly attacking the other side and sought to increase cooperation to combat the virus.
● But the continued proliferation of anti-US and other anti-Western misinformation on the Chinese internet risks shattering this truce.… Read the rest
US protectionism stands to reduce US GDP by a percentage point. Or more.
Concern about recent trade protectionism stems essentially from its reversing the previously-won gains from the progressive liberalisation of international trade since the Second World War.… Read the rest
● Saudi Arabia’s principal financial problem is a collapse in global oil demand due to the Covid-19 crisis.
● The oil price war that has broken out between Russia and Saudi Arabia exacerbates the effects of diminished prices, but an end to that price war will not by itself restore prices, especially because demand is likely to remain slack for months and global storage is filling up.… Read the rest
● Earlier this week, the government legally challenged the license of the country’s largest broadcasting network, in addition to working against its renewal by Congress.
● On Tuesday, Manila notified Washington that it is ending a key military agreement.… Read the rest
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Hiroshi Kajiyama, and European Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan issued a joint statement on 14 January that suggested the three parties had made progress in forging a joint proposal for upgrading World Trade Organization (WTO) rules to combat anticompetitive industrial subsidies.… Read the rest
● Phase 1 deal probably marks the end of the tariff phase of US-China competition.
● China’s purchase commitments could spark tensions with China’s non-US trading partners who will suffer from lost exports.… Read the rest
After a four-day party plenary session of the central committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), North Korean leader Kim Jong Un struck a cautious note towards the US, even after North Korea’s year-end deadline for progress in denuclearization talks passed without any change in Washington’s negotiating position.… Read the rest
