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US/CHINA: Trade deal in danger from US election politics

US/CHINA: Trade deal in danger from US election politics | Speevr

● Given declining imports from the US in the first quarter, China appears unlikely to meet the ambitious purchase commitments in the phase-one trade deal. ● US President Donald Trump likely prefers to continue casting the deal as an achievement, and the pandemic offers an obvi…   Become a member to read the rest of […]

US/CHINA: New US export controls target “civil-military fusion”

Teneo-Europe-Report

● The US Commerce Department issued new rules designed to deny China’s military access to advanced technology. ● But the impact will extend far beyond military users, since US hardliners view all Chinese civilian companies as potential agents of the military. ● The latest r…   Become a member to read the rest of this […]

SAUDI ARABIA: Truce in the oil price war, but long-term challenges persist

Teneo-Europe-Report

● In a week of drawn-out oil production negotiations, Saudi Arabia managed to preserve OPEC+ and seemingly deliver a win to US President Donald Trump. ● Sustained low oil prices will squeeze reform and modernization efforts in Saudi Arabia, but it will not end them. When Saud…   Become a member to read the rest […]

CHINA/US: Is Beijing tacitly supporting anti-Western fake news online?

Teneo-Europe-Report

● Following a presidential phone call, US and Chinese officials have stopped openly attacking the other side and sought to increase cooperation to combat the virus. ● But the continued proliferation of anti-US and other anti-Western misinformation on the Chinese internet risks…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

SAUDI ARABIA/RUSSIA: The challenges and limitations of a US-brokered deal

SAUDI ARABIA/RUSSIA: The challenges and limitations of a US-brokered deal | Speevr

● Saudi Arabia’s principal financial problem is a collapse in global oil demand due to the Covid-19 crisis. ● The oil price war that has broken out between Russia and Saudi Arabia exacerbates the effects of diminished prices, but an end to that price war will not by itself res…   Become a member to […]

PHILIPPINES: Duterte’s populism is moving beyond rhetoric

PHILIPPINES: Duterte’s populism is moving beyond rhetoric | Speevr

● Earlier this week, the government legally challenged the license of the country’s largest broadcasting network, in addition to working against its renewal by Congress. ● On Tuesday, Manila notified Washington that it is ending a key military agreement. ● Last week, the Ay…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

MACRO: Trilateral talks a first step, but obstacles remain for WTO reforms

MACRO: Trilateral talks a first step, but obstacles remain for WTO reforms | Speevr

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Hiroshi Kajiyama, and European Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan issued a joint statement on 14 January that suggested the three parties had made progress in forging a joint proposal for upgr…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

US/CHINA: Phase 1 ends tariff battle, but war shifts to new fronts

US/CHINA: Phase 1 ends tariff battle, but war shifts to new fronts | Speevr

● Phase 1 deal probably marks the end of the tariff phase of US-China competition. ● China’s purchase commitments could spark tensions with China’s non-US trading partners who will suffer from lost exports. ● US-China competition will shift from tariffs to export controls, inve…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

Macro Series – Global Letter – Quantifying trade protectionism

Macro Series - Global Letter - Quantifying trade protectionism | Speevr

  US protectionism stands to reduce US GDP by a percentage point. Or more. Concern about recent trade protectionism stems essentially from its reversing the previously-won gains from the progressive liberalisation of international trade since the Second World W…   Become a member to read the rest of this article

KOREAN PENINSULA: Pyongyang sends cautious signals as deadline passes

KOREAN PENINSULA: Pyongyang sends cautious signals as deadline passes | Speevr

After a four-day party plenary session of the central committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), North Korean leader Kim Jong Un struck a cautious note towards the US, even after North Korea’s year-end deadline for progress in denuclearization talks passed without any change…   Become a member to read the rest of this […]