This week will see intensified negotiations as Argentina tries to avoid a ninth sovereign default. Beyond Argentina, the spread of Covid-19 in the region will dominate the week ahead even as some countries tentatively loosen restrictions; yesterday, 17 May, the number of confirmed cases in Latin America and the Caribbean reached 500,000. … Read the rest
China and South Korea experienced an increase in new Covid-19 cases over the weekend. In Argentina, the negotiations between the government and bondholders will continue. The chaos surrounding Poland’s presidential election raises concerns about democratic legitimacy.… Read the rest
Japan is extending its state of emergency. Germany’s constitutional court will again examine bond buying in the Eurozone. Argentina is preparing for the official expiration date of its debt exchange offer.… Read the rest
Developments this week highlight the divergence between the government led by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the Central Bank (Banxico). Without coordinated fiscal and monetary action, the worst-case scenarios for the economy are more likely to materialize; these would see a contraction far deeper than the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s current projection of -6.6% for 2020.… Read the rest
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) yesterday, 14 April, announced that he would be in favor of bringing forward a presidential recall referendum to 2021. Under current rules, the recall referendum would take place in March 2022 should a signature collection drive fulfill specific requirements.… Read the rest
Former Lava-Jato (Carwash) judge Sergio Moro just announced today, 24 April, in a nationally televised press conference his resignation from the post of Justice Minister. This comes when a negotiation between the minister and President Jair Bolsonaro was supposed to be occurring regarding a reshuffle in the Federal Police with the replacement of Moro’s long-time ally Mauricio Valeixo as the head of the institution.… Read the rest
● The new health minister seems capable of handling Covid-19 well, while remaining outside the political danger zone within the government.
● The Chief-of-Staff at the Presidency is the new strong man and has ventured into economic territory, spearheading a new post-pandemic recovery plan.… Read the rest
● President Jair Bolsonaro finally dismissed his popular health minister, claiming he failed to see the economic side of the Covid-19 tragedy.
● The new minister is a renowned physician and medical entrepreneur who has publicly agreed with the health ministry’s handling of the crisis.… Read the rest
This week, the future of the Mercosur/Mercosul trade bloc faces renewed uncertainty. Venezuela’s regime is reversing the limited economic liberalization of recent months as an upcoming anniversary serves as a reminder of the regime’s reliance on the military.… Read the rest
From this week, Mexico’s state oil company Pemex is a “fallen angel” following the latest downgrade to its credit ratings. Also this week, Argentina’s creditors will be wanting to see flexibility ahead of debt talks, while domestically, the government weighs up how to relax lockdown measures. … Read the rest
