CHINA: Beijing outbreak tests effectiveness of half measures
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Argentina: Econviews Monthly Report
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ITALY: Con-Te (With You) or Without?
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Global Letter – The EU: on the money
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CHINA: Why has Chinese foreign policy turned more aggressive?
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EUROPE: Political risks to managing second waves
Continued ECB activity has bought EU policymakers time to deliver a response to the economic fallout from Covid-19.
From a Brussels perspective, the biggest challenges are timing and coordination.
Beyond fiscal constraints, domestic politics and institutional capacity pose the biggest hurdles for delivering effective and timely economic recovery packages in several countries.
CHINA/INDIA: Border standoff reflects Beijing’s anxieties
New Delhi regards the recent pattern of Chinese “intrusions” across the disputed border as the most serious standoff since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Beijing is apparently responding to Indian roadbuilding along the disputed border, which has strengthened the Indian military’s capabilities in the region. War is out of the question, but both sides are on […]
UK/EU: Get ready for border checks – but how clear will the message be?
There is still no date for the high-level meeting between PM Boris Johnson and the Presidents of the European Commission and Council, Ursula von der Leyen, and Charles Michel. However, the once envisaged UK request of an extension to the transition beyond 31 December has become highly unlikely.
Financial repression: a more subtle knife
High public sector debt levels are set to remain at the core of the economic policy debate. Periods of elevated and rapidly rising debt are rarely reversed without some form of default. This need not be explicit. It can be more subtle and covert. It can take the form of inflation, regulation, and the creation of ‘captive markets’ for bonds. The stage is set for an extended period of financial repression.
ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance
In Argentina, the feeling is that we hit rock bottom in April. Cement production, CAME’s sales, new vehicle registrations, Debits and Credits Tax revenue, and the recent PMI made by UADE all show better results in May than in April. The ongoing quarantine poses some limitations on activity improving during the coming weeks, but anyhow we expect the trend to stay positive.