Tag: economic risks

Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – May 2020

Economic Risks

  • Second infection waves hindering normalisation processes
  • After initial rebound, recovery traces an ‘accordion-shape’
  • Macro policy settings are loosened further
  • Government debt reaches unprecedented levels
  • High precautionary saving and enduring supply-side damage
  • More nationalism, poverty, inequality, and social unrest

OECD: radical uncertainty

  • Falls in GDP in Q2 of up to 80% at an annualised rate are to be expected in both the advanced and emerging
  • Unemployment rates are surging higher, and inequality and poverty are likely greatly to be exacerbated for some
  • CPI inflation has softened and could drop into negative territory in some of the advanced
  • Fiscal and monetary policy have been deployed to reduce the amplification and persistence of pandemic’s
  • Policy rates have converged around the zero bound, and unconventional monetary initiatives been greatly
  • Direct fiscal support of 6% of GDP has been announced, plus loan and guarantee schemes equivalent to 10%-odd of
  • G-7 public debt is headed to a record 140% of GDP, but is sustainable as long as interest rates remain
  • The first wave of infection has peaked, lockdowns are being eased, and stocks have rallied, but the risk is of
  • Perhaps, following a rebound in Q3, the recovery in activity could trace an ‘accordion-like’
  • Future levels of real GDP are likely to fall short of their pre- crisis extrapolated trend for an extended.
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Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – January 2020

Economic Risks

▪Trade and geopolitical-related tensions mounting

▪Modest growth proves vulnerable to new shocks

▪The global investment shortfall deepens further

▪A lack of policy ammunition constrains monetary policy ▪Budgetary slippage persists but structural reform founders

▪The UK government is consumed by Brexit and regionalism

OECD: the industrial slowdown may be past its worst

▪ Growth slowed throughout 2019, as trade uncertainty caused production, trade and investment volumes to slump.

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Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – February 2020

Economic Risks

▪ The coronavirus stymying renewed cyclical momentum

▪ Growth rates remaining modest by historical standards

▪ Inflation edging higher, but staying uncomfortably low

▪ Hopes of a retreat in protectionism coming to nought

▪ Risky-asset returns falling well short of recent experience

▪ UK trade negotiations with the EU and US proving difficult

OECD: the coronavirus a threat to a turn for the better

▪ The latest surveys suggest that the severe manufacturing led slowdown of 2018 and 19 is now drawing to a close.… Read the rest

Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – April 2020

Economic Risks

  • The sharpest and deepest downturn of the post-war era
  • Significantly higher and lasting public debt
  • More macro policy innovation, including monetary finance
  • Social unrest and humanitarian disasters
  • Damage to already-reduced productive potential
  • A swathe of sovereign defaults across Emerging Markets

OECD: freefall

  • The COVID-19 pandemic represents a burgeoning human tragedy of until recently unimaginable proportions.
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