Tag: Brexit

Politics

UK/EU: New year, new deadlines, new (slow-moving) drama

As anticipated, both sides agreed on a zero tariffs/quota trade deal just in time for Christmas. But the limited nature of the deal leaves many questions unanswered, chief among them the outlook for the (financial) services sector. Respective talks began this week, as a first deadline looms in March.… Read the rest

EU

UK/EU: Deal or delay?

Speculation has been growing that a post-Brexit trade deal will be announced before or on 24 December. In true Brexit fashion, however, earlier expectations for an imminent presentation of a deal turned out to have been too optimistic. As discussed in the past, a deal before year-end remains the most likely outcome, and the only deadline that matters is 31 December.… Read the rest

Politics

FRANCE: Three topics to watch in 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic will continue to dominate the agenda of President Emmanuel Macron’s administration during the first months of 2021. However, next year will mark the last opportunity for Macron to push for policy initiatives as the landscape of candidates running in the 2022 presidential election starts to take shape.… Read the rest

EU

UK/EU: Why in Brussels, arbitration must not be called arbitration

As the negotiations about a post-Brexit trade agreement continue, level playing field provisions and their enforcement remain the central stumbling block. However, the EU’s position has continued to shift away from earlier ideas of “dynamic alignment” and its upfront enforcement through independent regulatory authorities in the UK (akin to the European Commission).… Read the rest

EU

UK/EU: Headlines and deadlines

The unofficial 15 November deadline will pass this coming Sunday, but both sides continue their talks. At the same time, personnel changes in Downing Street have created headlines over recent hours. But more importantly, there is still at least about a month left for both sides to finalize a deal in time for a 1 January start.… Read the rest

Europe

UK/EU: Some form of deadline every week, until mid-November

After another week of future relationship talks in London and Brussels, 3 November emerges as the next iteration in the negotiations between the EU and the UK. By then, the question will be whether both sides have made enough progress in the talks so far to perhaps involve PM Boris Johnson and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a final attempt to clear the last hurdles, most importantly on fisheries and the issue of the level playing field/state aid.… Read the rest

EU

UK/EU: Towards a “Merkron Moment”?

Despite the UK’s 15 October deadline for the future relationship talks, PM Boris Johnson’s government remains willing to negotiate with the EU beyond the 15-16 October European Council. Both sides have therefore treated their respective ultimatums in a similar fashion: the EU’s initial insistence that the UK withdraw (parts of) the contentious internal market bill by 30 September was effectively dropped given both sides’ continued interest in talks.… Read the rest

FX

UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy

Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions.

Markets have seemingly taken heart from government measures to support the economy, including the labour and housing markets and service sector, the Bank of England’s so-far unflinching commitment to quantitative easing and the sharp rebound in economic activity in June-August.Read the rest

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Europe

UK: Plan for jobs – Does strategic ambition match fiscal cost?

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has presented his plan for jobs, the second part of the government’s set of economic measures to fight the impact of the pandemic, in the Commons today. The first stage of GBP 160bn had been designed to help the UK economy through the virus-inflicted hibernation period, mainly via increased spending on the national health service and a far-reaching (by UK standards) furlough scheme.… Read the rest