Nikhil Shamapant On Ethereum to $150,000, Triple Halving and NFTs
Nikhil recently published an influential investment report titled ‘Ethereum, The Triple Halving’, and has been researching cryptocurrencies and the Ethereum ecosystem since 2020. Outside of markets, Nikhil is an incoming medical resident at University of Colorado internal medicine. Nikhil completed his undergraduate degree at Rice University where he studied Philosophy and Cognitive Science. He then completed his medical school at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. In this podcast we discuss: Key differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum Consensus algorithms: proof-of-work vs proof-of stake The selling pressure of miners on Bitcoin The triple halving for Ethereum Impact of EIP1559 and halving Base case price target for Ethereum of $30,000-$50,000 Dynamics of an overshoot to $150,000 The growth of staking derivatives Can Cardano and Solana dislodge Ethereum Future of NFT and the metaverse Book that influenced Nikhil: Doing Good Better (MacAskill)
Saeed Amen On Trading Models, Alternative Data And Python [Replay]
In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of “Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today” and is the coauthor of “The Book of Alternative Data”, which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss: 1. Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry 2. How to design good trading models 3. Avoiding data mining 4. Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded 5. Why trend-following models have underperformed 6. Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows 7. Importance of reducing transaction costs 8. Types of alternative data 9. How to use news data 10. The non-technical challenges of using alternative data 11. Why Python is an important complement to Excel
Alberto Gallo on China Risks, Corporate Inequality and Accelerated History
Alberto is Head of Global Credit strategies and Portfolio Manager of the Algebris Global Credit Opportunities fund, a global strategy investing in bonds, credit and equities. Prior to Algebris, Alberto was Managing Director and Head of Global Macro Credit Research at RBS (2011-2016). His team was top ranked in Institutional Investor’s All-Europe Fixed Income survey for Investment Grade, High Yield Research and Fixed Income Strategy, for four years running. Previously, Alberto was a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York (2007-2011) and previously he was at Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch in London (2004-2007), where he co-authored some of the early research on the credit derivatives market.In this podcast we discuss: The challenge to neo-liberal capitalism Biden’s push for infrastructure and future trade policy China’s paradox markets vs centralisation COVID accelerated history Corporate inequality The effects of QE infinity The barbell approach to investing in a low yield world Favoured sectors Europe vs US equity allocations Why EM risks are high Inflation persistence Lessons learned as an investor Books that influenced Alberto: In Defence of Open Society (Soros), The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Popper), The Myth of Capitalism (Tepper), The Hidden Wealth of Nations (Zucman et al), Geopolitical Alpha (Papic), Homo Deus (Harari) and Brave New World (Huxley)
Anna Raytcheva on Trading Regime Changes, Reflation and Crypto
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Anna founded Sonya Capital Management in December 2016. Prior to that, Anna spent over twenty years at Citigroup, where she oversaw a multi-billion dollar balance sheet and large teams of traders as the Head of the Strategic Trading Desk, Co-Head of Risk Treasury and Head of the Agency MBS trading desk. Anna traded through eight central bank tightening and easing cycles and a few financial crises, such as the Asian financial crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial crisis. When she left Citigroup, the WSJ featured her as ‘Citigroup’s last proprietary trader’. She graduated with honours from Princeton University with a degree in Mathematics. In this podcast we discuss: Difference between trading on the sell-side versus at own fund Framework used to invest in markets How to use flow information to validate views The value of machine learning How to identify market regime changes The impact of risk transfers on market volatility How bubbles can be rational The difference between high-frequency trading and macro Views on the current reflation theme Two major risks: US tax changes and China decoupling Market to watch – yen Views on crypto markets Books that influenced Anna: The Second Machine Age (Brynjolfsson, Mcafee), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman)
Roger Garside On China Fragility, Coup Risks, and US Policy
Roger is a former diplomat, development banker, and capital market development advisor, who twice served in the British Embassy in Beijing, and is the author of the highly acclaimed Coming Alive: China After Mao, which explained how Deng Xiaoping won the struggle to succeed Chairman Mao Zedong and what he would do with his power. He has recently published a provocative new book China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom. In the podcast, we talk about: Why China is outwardly strong and inwardly weak The debt and efficiency problems of the state sector The role of corruption The centralisation of power around President Xi How a top-down coup could occur in China The role of the US in forcing regime change How COVID has impacted the Chinese political structure Why China is more fragile today than in the past Books that influenced Roger: The Bible and Capitalism and Freedom (Friedman)
Roshun Patel on Bitcoin, Crypto Lending and Futures Trading
Cross-exchange arbitrage in crypto How lending works in bitcoin and crypto Futures and interest rates on bitcoin Dynamics of the May bitcoin correction Divergence between US and China trading On-chain features and smart contracts Yield farming Issues around Tether Types of investors in crypto Call over-writing strategies Books that influenced Roshun: The Beginning of Infinity (Deutsch), The Selfish Gene (Dawkins), Sapiens (Harari), The Sovereign Individual (Davidson), The Energy World Is Flat (Lacalle and Parrila), and The Three-Body Problem (Liu)
Charley Ellis on Active Investors Underperformance, Index Investing and Character
Dr. Charles D. Ellis is the founder and former managing partner of Greenwich Associates, an international consultancy where he advised large institutional investors, foundations, and government organizations in more than 130 financial markets across the globe. He taught investment management courses at the Yale School of Management and at Harvard Business School. He sat on the Board of Directors of The Vanguard Group. In addition, Charley was a successor trustee of Yale University, where he chaired the university’s investment committee with David Swensen. He is the author of a number of books including Winning the Loser’s Game, which has recently come out in its 8th edition. In the podcast, we talk about: Why it has become harder for investors to outperform the market The rise of highly professional investors The difficulty of finding good investment managers The poor returns of investment managers The importance of time in assessing performance Market timing versus factor investing The impact of monetary policy on markets The problem with bond investing Outlook for equity returns Understanding your total portfolio Think over long time horizons and importance of character Benefit from intelligence of others through index investing Books/articles that influenced Charley: Warren Buffet’s annual letters, The Theory of Investment Value (John Burr Williams), Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings (Philip Fisher), Security Analysis (Graham and Dodd), Inside the Yield Book (Martin Leibowitz), Pioneering Portfolio Management (David Swensen)
Christian Angermayer on Exponential Growth, Revolutionising Healthcare and Overcoming Fear
Christian Angermayer is an entrepreneur and investor and the founder of Apeiron Investment Group, his family office and merchant banking business. Apeiron focuses on Financial Services (especially fintech and crypto assets), Technology, Life Sciences, Media & Entertainment and Real Estate & Prop-Tech. In the podcast, we talk about: What has helped Christian become a successful investor and entrepreneur The positive history of psychedelics The medical potential for psychedelics in mental health Classifying ageing as a disease Breakthroughs in longevity medicine Why healthcare systems are so costly How money printing is reshaping the economy The transition from linear growth to exponential growth The US-China rivalry The future of crypto currencies What to know about space tech Why invest in movies Books mentioned on podcast: The Immortality Key (Muraresku), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan) Book that influenced Christian: Think and Grow Rich! (Hill), The Law of Attraction (Hicks)
Former Deutsche Bank Chair/CEO Josef Ackermann On Running a Bank and the Future of Banking
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Josef Ackermann is the former chairman of the management board and the group executive committee at Deutsche Bank. Ackermann joined Deutsche Bank’s board of managing directors in 1996, where he was responsible for the investment banking division. He is also former chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of Cyprus. Ackermann studied economics and social sciences at the University of St. Gallen, where he earned his doctorate. In the podcast, we talk about: Managing Deutsche Bank around the global financial crisis Banker compensation and bonuses Why European banks have underperformed US banks The need for European bank consolidation How will fintech disrupt banking The importance of capital markets in Europe The future of asset management Passive vs active investment. How Western financials can benefit from China Book that influenced Joe: Faustv (Goethe), In Search Of Excellence (Peters), Built To Last (Collins), The Effective Executive (Drucker), The One Minute Manager (Blanchard)
John Butler on Stagflation, Gold and Bitcoin
John Butler has 25 years’ experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and the book ‘The Golden Revolution’. In the podcast, we talk about: Why stagflation is here The problem with large fiscal and public spending plans The moral hazard of Fed policy Why was inflation low after the global financial crisis? The absence of excess capacity and parallels to 1970s How to play a stagflation theme Is there a commodity supercycle? The future path of gold Why bitcoin won’t replace the dollar (or gold) The importance of risk management Book that influenced John: Money and Magic (Binswanger)