At Any Rate: Which way is up for the Fed?
Expectations that the Fed will soon begin to normalize monetary policy have left bond market participants with many questions. J.P. Morgan’s Alex Roever explores some of these with economist Michael Feroli, and strategists Teresa Ho (money markets), Jay Barry (treasuries) and Nick Maciunas (agency MBS).
This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3966322-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3971185-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
At Any Rate: Charging for Chalets – FHFA Boosts LLPAs
John Sim Is joined by Nick Maciunas and Kaustub Samant from the Securitized Products team to discuss the FHFA recent changes to loan level pricing for jumbo and second home loans deliverable to the GSEs. We touch on the implications for mortgage rates, prepayments, home prices, affordable lending and private-label originations.
This podcast was recorded on January 12, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3963683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
At Any Rate: Tales of the taper
Alex Roever is joined by Mike Feroli and Jay Barry to discuss the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the impact on the US rates market. The Fed made major changes to its policy statement, and the latest SEP indicate an early policy liftoff and a faster pace of hikes in 2022 and 2023. This largely aligns with our forecast that the Fed will liftoff in June and then tighten at a quarterly pace thereafter. In the aftermath of this meeting, front-end Treasury yields declined and the curve broadly steepened. We discuss the impact of valuations, positioning, and liquidity on the rates markets in the aftermath of the Fed meeting
This podcast was recorded on December 16, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952359-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952581-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
At Any Rate: Home Price, Commercial Real Estate and Mortgage Rate 2022 Outlook
John Sim Is joined by Nick Maciunas, Kaustub Samant and Chong Sin from the Securitized Products team to discuss US home prices, looking at both single-family and multi-family buy / rent options. We take into consideration the lack of housing supply, affordability and mortgage rates. We also discuss potential property price increases in commercial real estate.
This podcast was recorded on December 8, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3931024-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
At Any Rate: Outlook for Corporate Bonds in 2022
Alex Roever is joined by Eric Beinstein and Nelson Jantzen to discuss the outlook for High Grade and High Yield corporate credit markets in 2022. Rising UST yields, improving credit fundamentals, and less net supply should lead to modestly tighter spreads. We also see the environment sustaining tight spreads in leveraged credit, especially for floating-rate loans.
This podcast was recorded on December 1, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3930907-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3928409-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
At Any Rate: Thoughts on US & European Interest Rates for 2022
Alex Roever is joined by Srini Ramaswamy, Fabio Bassi, and Jay Barry to discuss the outlook for US and developed market interest rates in 2022. They discuss the relative differences in central bank reaction functions and the resulting impact on yields. Notably, the ECB is set to further expand its balance sheet expansion in 2022, but we forecast 10-year bund yields rising to -15bp and the curve steepening by 2Q22. The BoE is likely to raise rates next month and twice in 2022, pushing 10-year gilt yields to 1.15% by mid-year. We envision above-trend growth and a Fed on the move pushing 10-year yields to 2% by mid-2022. Fed tapering and bank leverage constraints will likely lead to slower deposit growth and demand for Treasuries in 2022. We envision volatility rising in 2022, supported by an active Fed and rising longer-term rates.
This podcast was recorded on November 30, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3931469-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3931940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
At Any Rate: Known unknowns
Alex Roever is joined by Mike Feroli and Jay Barry to discuss the outcomes of the November FOMC meeting and Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement and the impact on the US rates market. The Fed delivered a tapering announcement, as expected, and is likely to complete its asset purchases by mid-2022 much quicker than the 2013-2014 timeline. Moreover, the Fed changed its description on the outlook for inflation, and the onus is on labor supply is critical to thinking about the outlook for inflation and policy rates in 2022. Front-end yields declined this week and priced a more dovish path for Fed policy in 2022, but driven more by global dynamics than the FOMC Finally, the Fed’s quick taper has been accompanied by large cuts to Treasury auctions sizes, with more likely to come in 2022. This should allow the T-bill share of debt to stabilize.
This podcast was recorded on November 4, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3910586-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3910596-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3911077-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Known unknowns
Alex Roever is joined by Mike Feroli and Jay Barry to discuss the outcomes of the November FOMC meeting and Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement and the impact on the US rates market. The Fed delivered a tapering announcement, as expected, and is likely to complete its asset purchases by mid-2022 much quicker than the 2013-2014 timeline. Moreover, the Fed changed its description on the outlook for inflation, and the onus is on labor supply is critical to thinking about the outlook for inflation and policy rates in 2022. Front-end yields declined this week and priced a more dovish path for Fed policy in 2022, but driven more by global dynamics than the FOMC Finally, the Fed’s quick taper has been accompanied by large cuts to Treasury auctions sizes, with more likely to come in 2022. This should allow the T-bill share of debt to stabilize.
This podcast was recorded on November 4, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3910586-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3910596-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3911077-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
At Any Rate: How soon is now
In our latest podcast, analysts Alex Roever and Jay Barry discuss the outcome of the September FOMC meeting and the attendant impact on the rates markets. They delve how the outcome was more hawkish than expected, as the Fed is likely to complete its asset purchases earlier than expected They discuss the impact on the yield curve and the explore the path for the curve going forward. They also discuss the implications of the Fed increasing the counterparty limit on the Overnight RRP facility, and review latest developments on the debt ceiling debate.
This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3868711-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3869204-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
At Any Rate: More than meets the eye
In our latest podcast, analysts Alex Roever and Jay Barry discuss the developments in rates markets as summer transitions to fall. They delve into what the current level of Treasury yields imply for the growth outlook over the next year, examine investor positioning, and discuss the latest developments on debt ceiling negotiations.
This podcast was recorded on September 13, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3859927-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.