How independently do financier think?
Yesterday, we released the results of our markets survey (see below). Typically, a respondent will compare his/her responses against those of the masses in order to identify potential pitfalls of group-think. Unfortunately, the top line figures are not as helpful with this process as one would like. So, we thought we would share a simple survey analysis to demonstrate how cognitive biases and group-thinking are […]
Our Debut Survey Results
Thank you to all those who participated. We received 116 anonymous responses in total – predominantly from financial market professionals. Going forward, we will try harder to get higher participation rates amongst corporate treasuries and our tech industry followers. The results presented below are raw data and should not be interpreted as financial advice. 1) “With US S&P stock index currently at 3550, what […]
US Election Forecast
We project Biden to win by 340-355 Electoral College Votes (see below) Why are the implied odds for a Trump victory much lower in the betting markets than those of Nate Silver’s (FiveThirtyEight) model? This may be a bit like asking why England trade at high betting odds to win the (soccer) World Cup, or the Yankees in the World […]
Trump And Fox New Polls
Behind the Fox News Polls Yesterday, President Trump tweeted out against a recent poll released by Fox News which shows him trailing in battleground states against his 2020 presidential contender Joe Biden. Fortunately, on 4th August 2020 we had the pleasure of hosting Chris Anderson and Matthew Shelter of Beacon Research – the firm that produces the […]