Macro October 25, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Emerging Markets, Global, Macro, Politics editorial Teneo Macro Voters in Japan will go to the polls. Turkey is heading for a major confrontation with its allies. A Senate report requests the indictment of Brazil’s president. The UK chancellor will present his autumn budget. South Africa is gearing... Read More...
Europe October 25, 2021 TURKEY: Erdogan’s pyrrhic victory? Politics, Turkey Wolfango Piccoli Even though the meeting of the Turkish cabinet is still ongoing (a press conference is expected at around 7pm local time), it seems that President Tayyip Erdogan will not follow through on his previous threat to... Read More...
Europe October 24, 2021 TURKEY: Expulsion of ten ambassadors not a given despite Erdogan’s threat Politics, Turkey Wolfango Piccoli President Tayyip Erdogan stated on 23 October that he ordered to declare “persona non grata” the ambassadors of ten Western allies for seeking philanthropist Osman Kavala’s release from prison. Erdogan made these remarks during a rally in the western... Read More...
Latam October 21, 2021 BRAZIL: Pandemic report less harmful than the economy for Bolsonaro Brazil, Politics Mario Marconini The 1,178-page report presented on 20 October by the rapporteur of the Senate inquiry (CPI) into the pandemic, Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL), is unprecedented. Indictments were requested for more than 65 people in relation to 12 crimes. At the top... Read More...
Africa October 21, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Debt restructuring talk targets private creditors Politics, Sub-Saharan Africa Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt While the G20 advocate for a recalibration of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s pandemic management support, reforms and more comprehensive solutions to debt problems remain a medium-term prospect. Yet in the hardest hit countries, pressure on private creditors to partake... Read More...
Asia October 21, 2021 CHINA: Power shortages lead to durable market reforms China, Politics Gabriel Wildau Severe power rationing has led to significant long-term reforms to China’s electricity pricing system that go beyond emergency stop-gap measures. Under the new system, coal-powered generators can pass on higher coal prices to electricity users; the changes also force coal... Read More...
Africa October 21, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Who will be the biggest winner of the municipal elections? Politics, South Africa Anne Frühauf The African National Congress (ANC) will likely be the biggest loser of the 1 November municipal elections, but its loss will not be the gain of the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA). Smaller parties, not only the Economic Freedom Fighters... Read More...
Europe October 21, 2021 CEE: Economic and political challenges resurface with pandemic resurgence Politics Andrius Tursa Countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling to cope with the resurging pandemic amid low vaccination rates and widespread prevalence of the Delta strain. The inevitable return of tough restrictions will hamper economic recovery and could delay fiscal... Read More...
Asia October 21, 2021 Sri Lanka: Facing an economic crisis – but IMF is not an option (for now) Politics, Sri Lanka Aditi Phadnis Low revenue from tourism, plummeting foreign remittances and legacy debts from the sovereign bond market are pushing Sri Lanka in the general direction of default This is exacerbated by errors in the island’s tea-production strategy However, help from multilateral lending institutions... Read More...
