COLOMBIA: Petro likely faces marathon, not sprint, to 2022
The first round of the 2022 presidential elections may still be ten months away, but leftist Senator Gustavo Petro’s consistent poll lead raises the question of whether a Petro victory is inevitable. Below we examine early electoral dynamics on the Left and Center-Left. Petro’… Become a member to read the rest of this article […]
COLOMBIA: No clear end in sight to protests
After three weeks of often violent protests, President Ivan Duque continues to struggle with the fallout of his aborted tax reform. Events of the past 24 hours demonstrate how fluid the situation remains while also providing clearer indications of Duque’s assumptions and strategy… Become a member to read the rest of this article
COLOMBIA: Tax reform detonates major political crisis
The tax reform that President Ivan Duque withdrew on 3 May has succeeded in reigniting the 2019 protest movement. The difference now is that economic conditions have deteriorated drastically, while wide-ranging public grievances run even deeper than before. This explains why prot… Become a member to read the rest of this article
COLOMBIA: Another tax reform edges into view amid risk of ratings downgrade
President Ivan Duque on 8 February announced that a tax reform – the third of his presidency – would be presented in the next legislative period, which runs from March to June. While the need for fiscal reforms is ever-present, the pandemic-induced economic crisis has made it muc… Become a member to read the […]
COLOMBIA: Minister’s death puts spotlight on pandemic and succession challenges
The death from Covid-19 of Defense Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo yesterday, 26 January, highlights two challenges facing President Ivan Duque’s government. Most immediately, the public health situation is very serious, while the government is increasingly under fire for being s… Become a member to read the rest of this article
COLOMBIA: Upcoming clash over security reveals political undercurrents
Defense Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo faces two different motion of censure actions in the coming days. The proceedings are likely to generate significant political noise without seriously threatening the government or the minister’s position. Instead, the opposition offensive … Become a member to read the rest of this article
COLOMBIA: IMF backstop is positive but oil price vulnerability remains headache
Despite publicly contemplating a loosening of physical distancing measures, President Ivan Duque on 6 April announced that they would be extended until 27 April; the quarantine started on 25 March. The decision does not just reflect the World Health Organization (WHO)’s warnings … Become a member to read the rest of this article
COLOMBIA: IMF backstop is positive but oil price vulnerability remains headache
Despite publicly contemplating a loosening of physical distancing measures, President Ivan Duque on 6 April announced that they would be extended until 27 April; the quarantine started on 25 March. The decision does not just reflect the World Health Organization (WHO)’s warnings … Become a member to read the rest of this article
COLOMBIA: Concerns over informal sector despite robust pandemic response
The government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak has been largely science-based and robust. Social distancing measures were put in place relatively early, and a strict quarantine will remain in place until at least 13 April. The government is putting COP 2.1tn into the health s… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
COLOMBIA: The problem of jobless growth
In 2019, Colombia had the fastest growth rate (3.3%) out of the six leading Latin American economies (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Peru). Even with downward adjustments to the 2020 outlook already underway amid the COVID-19 outbreak, Colombia is on track to perform relativel… Become a member to read the rest of this article