US Recession | Inflation | Risk & Probabilities | Ackman | IRGC strikes

Are US rates markets overly optimistic about Fed rate cuts?
SURVEY Matrix | Upgrading Wilson to NEUTRAL from Underweight

Macro & bootstrapping, market rules of grammar
US bond yields | A poor risk/reward trade

Told ya it would be a tough trade going forward
Israel-Hamas | Saudi | Iran | 60/40 portfolio | Social media

The view from the Middle East. Time to mow our lawn of Wall Street amateurs
Argy | Alan Brazil | Higher for longer is the new normal

Another coup for us. Alan Brazil on higher of longer
Higher for Longer is the New Normal

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NFP | CIA analysts training for cognitive bias

How CIA analysts reduce cognitive biases in their work
Stop-loss | Will the Fed slow QT to support bond yields, and when?

Stop-loss triggered. Theory vs Reality. At what point can we expect the Fed to step-in to support rising bond yields?
US Treasuries | Now deemed return free risky assets
Nothing like a good market thrashing to instill some humility
USD 30Y | The most difficult trade | Julia Coronado
It might feel terrible, but not really