Category: Global

Economic Risks

Llewellyn Consulting August 4, 2020

The recovery process proves beholden to course of the virus
Policy support is insufficient and withdrawn too soon
Underlying growth potential is further significantly reduced
Balance sheet weaknesses spark a cascade of EM defaults
A ‘no-deal’ Brexit leaves the UK ‘the sick man’ of the OECD
A chaotic US Presidential election roils risk asset markets

OECD: an initially sharp recovery has moderated somewhat

Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers put the world economy into the equivalent of an induced coma.… Read the rest

Six Risks to the Post‐Coronavirus Recovery

admin July 20, 2020

Policymakers face obstacles in getting the economy back on track.

KEY INSIGHTS

Once the initial post‐lockdown economic surge has abated, the global economy faces six key risks to its long‐term recovery.

… Read the rest

In Germany, the deadline for the required proportionality assessment on the ECB’s PSPP is approaching. In Brazil, a reform of the tax system could be on its way, which could include a new digital services tax.… Read the rest

WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

Teneo July 27, 2020

In China, HSBC denied reports by Chinese official media accusing the bank of acting as an accomplice to the U.S. and lying about Huawei. In Spain, a nationwide lockdown is unlikely in the coming days despite the rising number of Covid-19 cases.… Read the rest

WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

Teneo July 13, 2020

EU leaders will try to agree on the recovery fund. Localized lockdowns might be ahead in the Philippines. South Africa’sgovernment has extended the state of disaster. Poland’s president retains his post.… Read the rest

WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

Teneo June 22, 2020

China has revealed its draft of a controversial national security law for Hong Kong. South Korea might be at the beginning of a second pandemic wave. In Germany, several local outbreaks have been identified over the past weeks.… Read the rest

MACRO: The politics of flattening curves and managing localized outbreaks

Teneo June 25, 2020

Below we provide a region-by-region update on the current state of the pandemic and what governments are doing to respond to the sustained increase of Covid-19 cases in some countries and the emergence of local outbreaks in others.… Read the rest

WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

Teneo July 6, 2020

China’s military exercise in the South China Sea was followed by a US exercise. Mexico’s president will visit the White House following the entry into force of the new USMCA trade agreement.… Read the rest

WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

Teneo June 29, 2020

In China, a state-owned pharmaceutical group has reported positive progress on a Covid-19 vaccine. Poland’s incumbentpresident has won the first round of the presidential election. Russia’s constitutional referendum will end this week.… Read the rest

MACRO: Exit Strategies & Economic Policy Outlook

Teneo August 4, 2020

Below is this week’s exit strategies table, which also includes updated information on the policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the economic fallout from Covid-19. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. … Read the rest