RUSSIA: Putin keeps his post-2024 options open
The proposed constitutional changes allow President Vladimir Putin to serve two more six-year terms, but he is unlikely to reveal his future role anytime soon. The revised constitution will likely be approved in a nationwide vote in April unless the poll is postponed to a later … Become a member to read the rest […]
TURKEY: Erdogan in a bind, but de-escalation with Russia is the only option
At least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed and 32 wounded in the Syrian province of Idlib on 27 February in an escalating confrontation between Russian-backed Syrian forces on one side and Turkish forces and their Sunni militia allies on the other. Yesterday’s losses bring the numb… Become a member to read the rest of […]
RUSSIA: Fiscal fortress shields from oil price wars
The Kremlin holds sufficient financial reserves to withstand low oil prices throughout the remaining of 2020 without altering its spending plans. However, notable concessions from OPEC or a significant domestic economic downturn associated with COVID-19 would make Russia more lik… Become a member to read the rest of this article
TURKEY: Erdogan’s climbdown puts Idlib issue on uneasy standby
The 5 March meeting between Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, has brought the issue of Idlib to an uneasy standby. The negotiations lasted almost six hours, suggesting that the encounter did not go all smoothly. However, an agreement wa… Become a member to read the rest of this article
TURKEY: Compromise with Russia next
Turkey announced on 1 March the launch of a military offensive – operation Spring Shield, the fourth military offensive in as many years – against the Moscow-backed Syrian regime. The escalation follows the 27 February airstrike that killed around three dozen Turkish soldiers in … Become a member to read the rest of this […]
Forecasting Russia – Reconcile the Incompatible
The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced a mixed impression, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual … Become a member to read the rest of […]
Sovereign Debt: OFZ Rally is a Problem for the Finance Ministry
Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rat… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Russia’s Monetary Policy: Priorities to be Reconsidered Amid Decelerating Inflation, Slow Growth
As in early October the w-o-w inflation did not move to a positive territory for another week and remained at zero, it became almost certain that inflation is going to get closer to 3.0% rather than to 4.0% this year, i. e. it will be well below the CBR target. It cannot be rule… […]
Budget 2020: Smaller Surplus – Fewer Distortions
Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated draft version of a three-year rolling budget, which indicates a shift from a kind of austerity and strong federal budget surplus toward a more generous spending policy, which should be generally supportive for economic growth. The … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Russian Macro – Falling Inflation to Pull Key Rate Down
Rosstat reported that the YTD inflation reached 2.4% as of September 2, which is already lower than the cumulative inflation over the same period in 2018. In August a 0.2% m-o-m deflation was recorded implying that the cumulative inflation remained at zero in the summer months…. Become a member to read the rest of […]