RUSSIA/US: Expanded Nord Stream 2 sanctions loom
The expansion of US sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline could further push back the completion of the project. However, a potentially drawn out adoption process in the US would limit the effectiveness of the proposed measures. Regardless of the sanctions, Gazprom will … Become a member to read the rest of […]
EUROPE: CEE PULSE
As the Covid-19 curve gradually flattens, the Russian government is restarting preparations for the postponed Victory Day parade and the vote on constitutional amendments. Meanwhile, although Hungary is gearing up to end the government’s rule by decree, contr… Become a member to read the rest of this article
RUSSIA: Starting (premature) economic reopening
Economic concerns and regional differences in the epidemiological situation across the country are pressuring Russian authorities to embark on a gradual restart of the economy despite the rapid spread of Covid-19. This poses the risk of a premature reopening, which may prolong th… Become a member to read the rest of this article
RUSSIA: Covid-19 exposes political and institutional weaknesses
● Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has contracted Covid-19, as new cases continue to surge. ● Mishandling the disease in Russia’s regions could significantly undermine public trust in President Vladimir Putin. ● The government will likely boost the fiscal response to Covid-… Become a member to read the rest of this article
RUSSIA: Low oil prices and Covid-19 push Moscow to OPEC+ deal
● The steep drop in global oil prices and the deepening of the Covid-19 crisis at home has forced Russia to accept significant oil production cuts at the latest round of OPEC+ meetings. ● The technical details of the deal and Moscow’s reluctance to comply with the previous OPEC+… Become a member to read […]
SAUDI ARABIA/RUSSIA: The challenges and limitations of a US-brokered deal
● Saudi Arabia’s principal financial problem is a collapse in global oil demand due to the Covid-19 crisis. ● The oil price war that has broken out between Russia and Saudi Arabia exacerbates the effects of diminished prices, but an end to that price war will not by itself res… Become a member to […]
RUSSIA: Who leads the response to Covid-19?
The government’s slow and uncoordinated response to Covid-19 has prompted municipal and regional administrations to take the lead in tackling the outbreak. While the central government now appears to be taking a more proactive approach, President Vladimir Putin is still playing a… Become a member to read the rest of this article
RUSSIA: Moscow stepping up Covid-19 response
● Russia is tightening Covid-19 containment measures and taking steps to support domestic economy as the disease spreads. ● Conservative fiscal planning and substantial financial buffers will allow the government to maintain its spending commitments in 2020. ● It is possible th… Become a member to read the rest of this article
RUSSIA: Putin keeps his post-2024 options open
The proposed constitutional changes allow President Vladimir Putin to serve two more six-year terms, but he is unlikely to reveal his future role anytime soon. The revised constitution will likely be approved in a nationwide vote in April unless the poll is postponed to a later … Become a member to read the rest […]
TURKEY: Erdogan in a bind, but de-escalation with Russia is the only option
At least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed and 32 wounded in the Syrian province of Idlib on 27 February in an escalating confrontation between Russian-backed Syrian forces on one side and Turkish forces and their Sunni militia allies on the other. Yesterday’s losses bring the numb… Become a member to read the rest of […]