Europe September 20, 2021 RUSSIA: Implications of United Russia’s expected victory Politics, Russia Andrius Tursa The State Duma election resulted in a widely anticipated victory of the ruling United Russia (UR) party, which is on track to retain a constitutional two- thirds majority in the 450-seat lower chamber of parliament. However, the vote cannot... Read More...
Europe September 9, 2021 RUSSIA: Upcoming State Duma election heralds more authoritarianism Politics, Russia Andrius Tursa The ruling United Russia (UR) party is set to achieve a convincing victory in the upcoming election to the State Duma (lower house of parliament) on 17-19 September. The Kremlin’s objective is to retain a constitutional majority, ensure the... Read More...
MENA August 17, 2021 AFGHANISTAN: China and Russia look for gains, but terrorism a rising worry Afghanistan, China, Politics, Russia Andrius Tursa, Gabriel Wildau, Jon B. Alterman China and Russia will build on the disorderly US withdrawal from Afghanistan to strike their own relationship with the new regime, protect their respective regional interests, and undermine US global influence. The return of the Taliban to power is a... Read More...
Europe July 28, 2021 RUSSIA/UKRAINE: US-German deal on Nord Stream 2 gives Moscow leverage over Kyiv Politics, Russia, Ukraine Andrius Tursa The US-German agreement allowing the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline represents a political victory for Moscow. Nord Stream 2 is expected to substantially lower Russian gas shipments through Ukraine after 2024 thereby limiting Kyiv’s revenue from transit and... Read More...
Europe July 21, 2021 RUSSIA: Taking first steps towards carbon accounting and regulation Politics, Russia Andrius Tursa While a new greenhouse gas emissions law marks a first step towards creating a national emissions accounting and regulating framework, nascent climate policies leave a lot of uncertainty for businesses. Russia’s heavy industry companies – which have most at stake... Read More...
Europe June 24, 2021 RUSSIA: Government grapples with resurgent pandemic ahead of September election Politics, Russia Andrius Tursa The resurging pandemic will lead to new restrictions and mandatory vaccinations in multiple regions. The aggressive vaccination push will boost the country’s sluggish immunization campaign but could further lower support for the ruling United Russia party ahead of the September... Read More...
Europe June 15, 2021 RUSSIA/US: Putin-Biden summit – an attempt to set framework for future ties Politics, Russia, US Biden, editorial, Putin Andrius Tursa A summit between the US and Russian presidents on 16 June in Geneva is unlikely to bring any breakthroughs in bilateral relations, but symbolic confidence re-building agreements are possible. In general, the summit aims to refresh personal ties between the... Read More...
Europe April 28, 2021 RUSSIA: Subsiding tensions do not eliminate risks abroad and at home Politics, Russia, Ukraine editorial Andrius Tursa Russia’s pullback of troops deescalates tensions along the border with Ukraine, but the situation remains volatile. Diplomatic efforts to advance the resolution of the conflict in Donbas are expected to intensify in the coming months. At home, the Kremlin will continue... Read More...
Europe April 16, 2021 RUSSIA: US sanctions could escalate tensions with Ukraine Politics, Russia, Ukraine editorial Andrius Tursa The new restrictions imposed by the US on 15 April will not significantly affect the Russian economy or its public finances but will push relations between Moscow and Washington to a new nadir. In response, Moscow could step up... Read More...
Europe April 15, 2021 RUSSIA: Sabre-rattling might prove counterproductive for Moscow Politics, Russia, Ukraine Andrius Tursa The proposed US-Russia bilateral summit might help deescalate tensions in eastern Ukraine but will not bring a political solution to the conflict in Donbas. Moscow’s saber-rattling appears counterproductive on the international front but could provide a temporary respite at... Read More...
