Category: Europe

CEE: Premature celebrations over diluted rule of law conditionality

Teneo July 23, 2020

Despite offering few details on the mechanism linking European Union (EU) funding with the rule of law, the recent deal on the 2021-2027 budget and recovery fund still raises the probability of financial penalties to countries with perceived rule of law deficiencies, most notably Hungary and Poland.… Read the rest

EUROPE: CEE PULSE

Teneo August 4, 2020

Serbia has launched a controversial investigation into the financing of civil society organizations critical of the government. In Bulgaria, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov is seeking appease continuing public discontent by reshuffling the government and rolling out new economic support measures.… Read the rest

EUROPE: CEE PULSE

Teneo July 22, 2020

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Igor Matovic is expected to survive a vote of no confidence later this week over accusations of plagiarism. The composition of Croatia’s new cabinet – which must win parliament’s approval by mid-August – suggests policy continuity.… Read the rest

EUROPE: CEE PULSE

Teneo July 22, 2020

FRANCE: New government brings more of the same

Teneo July 7, 2020

The announcement of the members of the reshuffled government on 6 July did not produce any surprises on the economic front. Finance and Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire has retained his post, and the changes to some of the key portfolios such as home affairs, labor, and the environment suggest a substantial degree of continuity in the policies of President Emmanuel Macron’s administration.… Read the rest

CROATIA: HDZ might govern alone after convincing victory

Teneo July 6, 2020

The ruling center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) achieved a convincing victory in the 5 July general election and is expected to govern alone, relying on the support of national minority MPs and the informal backing from smaller parties.… Read the rest

CROATIA: HDZ better positioned to form coalition government after Sunday’s poll

Teneo July 2, 2020

The Restart Coalition led by the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) will likely win the most mandates in the general election scheduled for 5 July, but the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) – expected to come in second – has better chances of forming a new coalition government.… Read the rest

FOCUS: Hard labour – the post-pandemic jobs market

Llewellyn Consulting June 29, 2020

Countries’ labour markets have been hit hard by COVID-19; and the UK more than most
The UK is a microcosm of effects likely to be seen worldwide
The young, the poor, women, and some minority groups seem destined to suffer disproportionately
Immediate and longer-standing inequalities are likely to be exacerbated
Working habits will change for some and automation will probably get a boost
Getting policy right, not least labour policies, while potentially crucial, will be difficult

Introduction

Labour markets worldwide have been hit hard by the measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic; and the hit looks as if it may be particularly severe in the UK.… Read the rest

EU: A politically transformative deal, but unlikely to be the last word

Teneo July 21, 2020

After lengthy talks, EU leaders have agreed on a new budget and a recovery fund, demonstrating member states’ continued commitment in a moment of severe crisis.
The deal is politically transformative in that it sets a powerful precedent, allowing the Commission to issue joint debt, part of which will be passed on to crisis-hit economies in the form of grants.

… Read the rest

EU: The biggest risks loom once the recovery money starts flowing

Teneo July 14, 2020

On 17-18 July, heads of state or government will convene for their first in-person summit since the outbreak of the pandemic.
The goal for the special European Council is to agree a new multiannual financial framework (MFF) for the period 2021-27, including the envisaged EUR 750bn recovery fund.

… Read the rest