- Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) includes a less “active” stabilization of South Africa’s runaway debt than promised in June.
- The government now makes even bigger promises on cutting the public-sector wage bill – a good signal but implementation prospects remain uncertain.
Category: Emerging Markets
- It is widely considered a foregone conclusion that President John Magufuli will be reelected in general elections on 28 October, as the race seems overwhelmingly skewed in favor of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).
- The #endSARS movement will likely retreat to social media for the foreseeable future and forfeit much of its leverage as a result.
- Past precedent suggests little of substance will emanate from the official commissions of inquiry set up to investigate the armed forces’ human rights abuses.
The United Malays National Organization (UMNO) decided late Monday evening to continue supporting Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. Over the weekend, the prime minister had asked the king to declare a state of emergency, which would have forestalled any attempt to bring down his government, either by the opposition or from within his own coalition.… Read the rest
- A landslide in favor of a new constitution marks the beginning of an intense electoral cycle as well as the two-year constitutional process.
- The results do not necessarily undermine the mechanism to ensure consensus and moderation in the new constitution.
- Municipal election results in November will not have much influence on the economic agenda.
- Elections for the presiding officers of both chambers of Congress will delay decisions until February 2021.
- Only then will it be clear whether government clout or congressional independence will prevail as the driving force of the reform / financial sustainability agenda.
- Bolsonaro’s handling of illegal deforestation is the main source of discord between Biden and the Brazilian president.
- A potential Democratic administration may help Brazil in favoring multilateralism.
- China’s growing influence in Brazil may bring the US and Brazil closer under a potential Biden administration.
- President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan makes bold promises around four priority areas – infrastructure development, job creation, energy security and industrialization.
- It seems heavier on spending than on economic liberalization, which will present challenges for next week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS).
- Beijing is resisting pressure from the G20 to adopt a Common Framework on debt relief that covers non-official, commercial loans to low-income countries.
- The Finance Ministry refuses to classify China Development Bank (CDB) as an official bilateral creditor subject to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI).