- From today, Peru will have a new caretaker president after the brief and hapless Manuel Merino presidency.
- The political crisis should begin to ease in the coming days even if congressional antagonism does not recede entirely.
Category: Emerging Markets
- After eight years of negotiations, the fifteen participants in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed a final agreement in a virtual summit on Sunday, 16 November.
- The economic benefits may be relatively modest in the near term but simplifying rules of origin will promote greater integration along supply chains.
On 13 November, the G20 published the anticipated ‘Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI)’. In what may be read as a concession to get China on board, the framework refers to debt cancellations as ultima ratio, reserved exclusively for “the most difficult cases”.… Read the rest
While the post-election stand-off between the opposition and the government continues, the risk of a violent escalation appears to have largely subsided for now. Neither the ongoing house arrest of key opposition leaders, nor an open appeal by the exiled ex-militia leader Guillaume Soro to members of the armed forces to mutiny have triggered a tangible reaction.… Read the rest
President Sebastian Pinera’s administration increasingly resembles a damage limitation exercise. This week, Pinera lost an Interior Minister, Victor Perez, who had only been in the job for 98 days. In parallel, a bill that would allow people to make a second withdrawal from the private pension (AFP) system – a measure the government opposes but which it cannot hold off – is now ready for a plenary vote in the lower house.… Read the rest
- Aung San Suu Kyi and her party remain popular domestically.
- Re-election will mean policy continuity, but whether the government can use some of its momentum for reforms remains to be seen.
- The conflict between Addis Ababa and the Tigray region has escalated dramatically since fighting erupted on 4 November.
- Addis Ababa probably wants to quickly gain a tactical advantage to avoid becoming bogged down in a protracted conflict, and fend off mounting international opprobrium.
- The standoff between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government and the Tigray region came to a head on 4 November.
- The prospects for a de-escalation look uncertain and a full-scale conflict would have implications well beyond Tigray’s borders.