Category: Emerging Markets

ASIA: RCEP heavy on symbolism, but its economic effects will be limited

  • After eight years of negotiations, the fifteen participants in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed a final agreement in a virtual summit on Sunday, 16 November.
  • The economic benefits may be relatively modest in the near term but simplifying rules of origin will promote greater integration along supply chains.
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ZAMBIA: Point of no return

Finance Minister Bwalya Ng’andu confirmed today, 13 November, that Zambia would “have no other alternative but to accumulate arrears” on its 2024 Eurobond, where the grace period on a USD 42.5mn coupon payment expires today.… Read the rest

COTE D’IVOIRE: Violent escalation averted, problems remain

While the post-election stand-off between the opposition and the government continues, the risk of a violent escalation appears to have largely subsided for now. Neither the ongoing house arrest of key opposition leaders, nor an open appeal by the exiled ex-militia leader Guillaume Soro to members of the armed forces to mutiny have triggered a tangible reaction.… Read the rest

CHILE: Governing from weakness

President Sebastian Pinera’s administration increasingly resembles a damage limitation exercise. This week, Pinera lost an Interior Minister, Victor Perez, who had only been in the job for 98 days. In parallel, a bill that would allow people to make a second withdrawal from the private pension (AFP) system – a measure the government opposes but which it cannot hold off – is now ready for a plenary vote in the lower house.… Read the rest

ETHIOPIA: Can civil war still be avoided?

  • The standoff between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government and the Tigray region came to a head on 4 November.
  • The prospects for a de-escalation look uncertain and a full-scale conflict would have implications well beyond Tigray’s borders.
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