Category: Emerging Markets

Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations

Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month.

The consensus view is still seemingly that a Democratic administration will fuel large US twin deficits and expectations of higher domestics inflation while Fed will keep rates on hold, eroding the value of Dollar assets.Read the rest

Argentina: Watch Out for the Summer!

Those who are “at-risk groups” will remember February 6, 1989: that day the Plan Primavera in times of José Luis Machinea and Juan Sourrouille blew up. Convertibility began in April 1991 and was the product of a difficult summer.… Read the rest

Argentina: Diluted stabilization plan

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS


  • Worldwide, states must deal with shortages, bottlenecks and other logistical issues in the effort to vaccinate their populations against Covid-19. Argentina has applied around 200,000 shots of the Sputnik V vaccine, ahead of other South American countries but far from those necessary to inoculate essential workers and high-risk groups.
Read the rest

Argentina: Diluted stabilization plan

Last Friday Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner, Sergio Massa, Axel Kicillof, Máximo Kirchner, among other leaders of the governing coalition, gathered in La Plata to rename a football stadium after Diego Maradona.… Read the rest

Argentina: What if There is No Agreement with the Fund?

For a long time, our baseline scenario has been that Argentina reaches an agreement with the International Monetary Fund around March or April. Today the chances that this agreement is delayed until 2022 or at least until the legislative elections of October have grown.Read the rest

Argentina: Price Administration is the Name of the Game

Minister Guzmán’s orthodox turn in early December crashed with politics. Since Cristina Kirchner’s speech in La Plata, many things have changed in the government’s economic approach. Perhaps the most important is the arsenal of tools to fight inflation.… Read the rest