Argentina: The FX Spread Widens and Messes (even more) The Economy
The official exchange rate remains tamed. On average, the dollar rose 1% in October, 1.1% in September and 1% in August. Well below inflation, that averaged more than 3% per month. It is true that in the last week of October the exchange rate accelerated a little, but too little to think that there is […]
WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS
Voters in Japan will go to the polls. Turkey is heading for a major confrontation with its allies. A Senate report requests the indictment of Brazil’s president. The UK chancellor will present his autumn budget. South Africa is gearing up for municipal elections. The most significant reopening by a Southeast Asian country is ahead in […]
Argentina: Orderly or Messy Adjustment?
When the legislative elections of November 14 pass, all eyes will return almost exclusively to the economy. Once the results are digested, the question will be how Argentina will resolve the many imbalances that are beginning to grow. They are, mainly, the fiscal issue, the monetary issue, largely the daughter of fiscal problems, and the […]
WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS
China has tested a new missile. Turkey’s currency is set for more volatility. Chile is on high alert. Meanwhile, a civilian-military standoff continues in Pakistan, formal coalition talks will begin in Germany, a constitutional amendment will be put to a vote in Brazil, and a commodity trader has opened talks with the government of Chad […]
LATAM PULSE
This week, Chile marks two years since the outbreak of protests just as the constituent assembly born out of that unrest starts to debate the content of a new constitution. In Peru, a new stage of Pedro Castillo’s presidency opens up as his party appears to be submitting to new realities. In Brazil, this week […]
EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccinations and Challenges
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. HIGHLIGHTS Vaccine rollout In Brazil, the Health Ministry […]
Argentina: New “Cepo”, Old Problems, No Solutions
Last week the Central Bank again intensified the “cepo”, cutting import payments and making the operation of alternative dollars even more restrictive. You could see it coming. The sale of reserves was unsustainable, and it did not seem very likely that the government would bless a devaluation before the November 14 elections. A Driverless Private […]
MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19
Below is our updated bi-weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments are implementing around the world. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.
LATAM PULSE
This week, Chile‘s President Sebastian Pinera faces a bumpy ride as he seeks to defend himself from allegations arising from the “Pandora Papers” leak; at the same time, another presidential debate takes place later today. In Mexico, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) will be making the case for his highly controversial electricity sector reform […]
WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS
The US and China held virtual trade-related talks. Tensions are rising in the relationship between the UK and the EU. Japan’s new PM will dissolve the Diet. Argentina’s finance minister will attend the annual IMF meetings. Meanwhile, candidate registration ended in the Philippines, Austria has a new chancellor, another presidential debate will be held in […]
