Ten charts to Monitor the BoJ’s QE Exit — Part 1
I present BoJ QT monitor. In part 1, I focus on how far the BoJ’s JGB ownership fell, who filled the gap and what happens to public sector debt duration when you consolidate BoJ reserves into it.
The BoJ’s Equity Bet Is Paying for QE Exit
BoJ’s ¥100+ trn equity ETF portfolio covers what it loses on its bonds. The same portfolio is the only channel through which the exit can break the Bank.
Comment: The BoJ’s Equity Bet Is Paying for QE Exit
A couple of points to add on Japan CIA and Yen carry trade
Good-bye USD Dominance, Hello Again JPY
The yen has been making a quiet comeback as a global currency. As a share of global FX reserves, its share rose from 3.4% in 2009 to 5.8% in 2025, despite the headwind of yen depreciation.
The Warsh Factor in the JGB Curve
The US bond market is charging a risk premium as the new Fed chair obfuscates. About a quarter of that lands on JGBs, raising 10Y about 10bp at end-2026.
Japan Cashes In Its National Carry Trade
Japan bought its dollars at ¥114 and is selling them at ¥160.
US Econ | FOMC | GS Mericle Hack
David Mericle outlines Goldman Sachs’ baseline macro outlook under newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh
The Long Climb in JGB Yields Is Nearly Over
JGB yields saw a historic rise between 2022-2026. Most of the rise came from higher inflation expectations and a normalization of term premia. Our analysis shows the Long Climb is likely nearly over.
Japan’s Fiscal Vigilantes Are Misreading the Curve
The JGB curve’s shape shows fiscal fear is not the primary driver for the rise in long term bond yields
Mercy for a Central Bank in a Vice
The vice that held the Bank of Japan for four months loosened this morning.