Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP
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What next for Asian currencies
Asian currency performance update – Moderate weakness in absolute and relative terms Asian currencies, bar the safe-haven Japanese Yen and Philippines Peso, have come under greater pressure this week as the number of reported coronavirus cases in China (and now 23 other countries) and reported deaths in China has increased (see Figure 1). […]
Asian currencies showing some viral resistance
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Lack of US market & macro volatility both reassuring and troubling
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What you may have missed and why it matters
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Early Christmas for (still weak) global growth
There is a growing consensus that global economic growth will slowly recover in 2020, particularly in the second half of the year. We made this prediction nearly four months ago in Central banks to the rescue…with a lag (27 August 2019), pointing to the positive, lagged impact of central bank rate cuts on global GDP […]
Room and need for more central bank rate cuts
Central banks across the world have been cutting their policy rates in unison since early May, in line with our forecast back in January that “policy rate cuts, which have all but disappeared since last Spring, may yet resurface in the second half of 2019 (see Forecast Update: Brexit, FX, central banks & GDP growth, […]
“Currency wars” not central banks’ end-game
Not a day passes without the media and US President Trump pointing the finger at “currency wars” and “competitive devaluations”. The thrust of the argument is that central banks across the world, in a “race to the bottom”, are cutting policy rates and in the case of the ECB resuming QE, in order to weaken […]
Central banks to the rescue…with a lag
We have consistently and correctly forecast since October that the 60bp increase in the global central bank policy rate in 2018 would, with a lag, contribute to global GDP growth falling below 3% in 2019 and to lower inflation and that as a result “policy rate cuts, which had all but disappeared since Spring 2018, […]
4X Global Research Forecasting Track Record
4X Global Research (4XGR), a fully independent yet well connected London-based research consultancy, has since its inception in 2016 consistently posted a strong forecasting track record for currencies, rates as well as macroeconomic and political developments which is detailed below. This underscores its rigorous top-down approach, rooted in both a detailed qualitative assessment of emerging […]