Rafael Aguilar

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• December 4, 2023

Argentina | Chainsaw Challenges

Download Editorial: Chainsaw Challenges Most economists (including those of us at Econviews) believe that fiscal adjustment is a necessary condition to stabilize the economy. That is to say, Javier Milei has the correct diagnosis. The chainsaw analogy he used...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 30, 2023

Argentina | Milei Promises Pro-market Policies… Can He Deliver?

Download Editorial: Milei Promises Pro-market Policies... Can He Deliver? Finally it's Milei, hope won over fear and the vote was for change. But the path facing the economy is complex. We are not going to travel on a highway,...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 30, 2023

Argentina | Milei: big hopes, big challenges

Download Milei has been elected with roughly 56% of the popular vote, which means that he has a strong mandate to go ahead with his plan for stabilization and structural reforms. On the other hand, he has a small...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 20, 2023

Argentina | Milei wins the election, the transition starts immediately

Download Javier Milei beat Sergio Massa with a margin of over 11 points in the second round. He will be Argentina’s president for a period of 4 years starting on 10 December. He will be the first economist to...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 14, 2023

Argentina | There Is No Promised Land Without a Season in the Desert

Download Editorial The Argentine economy accumulates many important problems. It has negative net reserves, Soviet exchange restrictions, an overappreciated exchange rate, 12 months without growth, inflation that has a floor of 180% for this year, and more than 40%...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 6, 2023

Argentina | A Model With Holes Everywhere

Download Editorial: A Model With Holes Everywhere October's preliminary numbers likely tell the story of a slowdown in prices. Inflation has probably moved between 9 and 10%. In the last quarter, prices rose around 38-39% while the exchange rate...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 2, 2023

Argentina | EconViews Base Scenario- October 2023

Download Dear clients and friends, We share with you our report "Base Scenario Econviews" that includes projections of the main macroeconomic variables until 2025. We hope you find it useful. For questions or comments about this report, please contact Andrés Borenstein. ...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 31, 2023

Argentina | The dilemmas of the two-man presidential race

Download The dilemmas of the two-man presidential race Massa was the big winner in the general election and appears to be the front runner in a runoff that is likely to be very tight. The fact that he came...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 30, 2023

Argentina | The Need for Structural Reforms

Download Editorial: The Need for Structural Reforms The scenarios are becoming somewhat clearer. Philosophically there is a ruling party embodied in Sergio Massa, who if he wins will have to take charge of the disorders of recent years. Milei...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 23, 2023

Argentina | Massa is the likely next president: continuity rather than change

Sergio Massa was the great winner of the general election but will need to beat Javier Milei in a second round on 19 November. The finance minister obtained 36.68% of the total votes, improving by 9 points his performance...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 7, 2023

Argentina | 900 Reasons for the Run on the Peso

Download Editorial: 900 Reasons for the Run on the Peso The government is not generating any credibility. It insists on patches that have diminishing returns: a special exchange rate for oil exporters, small and medium businesses and now perhaps...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 3, 2023

EconViews Base Scenario- September 2023

Dear clients and friends, We share with you our report "Base Scenario Econviews" that includes projections of the main macroeconomic variables until 2025. We hope you find it useful. For questions or comments about this report, please contact Andrés...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 2, 2023

Argentina | Waiting for the Turbulence of December: 2015 Reloaded?

Download Editorial: Waiting for the Turbulence of December: 2015 Reloaded? Everything indicates that we are going to have a turbulent December. Memories of other turbulent summers intensify, such as February 1989, which marked the beginning of hyperinflation, or December...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 29, 2023

Argentina | 2024: from paradise to hell, anything is possible

Download The economic situation continues to deteriorate, and it is now clear that whoever wins the general elections will have a colossal challenge in December. He or she will have to deal with an extremely fragile situation including a...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 25, 2023

Argentina | Are We in the Eighties With Electricity and Smartphones?

Download Editorial: Are We in the Eighties With Electricity and Smartphones? With each passing week the feeling that the Argentine economy is approaching the one we experienced in the eighties cannot be avoided. It does not mean that the...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 19, 2023

Argentina | The Inheritance Keeps Getting Worse

Downloads Editorial: The Inheritance Keeps Getting Worse We don't know who is going to win the elections. But we do know that the legacy of problems for the next government has not stopped getting worse in recent weeks. This...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 11, 2023

Argentina | Income Tax in the Upside Down

Download Editorial: Income Tax in the Upside Down Argentina’s terrible application of the personal income tax is impressive. Last week it was YPF employees and now Massa is doubling the bet with a proposal to eliminate the income tax....

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 8, 2023

EconViews Base Scenario- August 2023

Download Dear clients and friends,  We share with you our report "Base Scenario Econviews" that includes projections of the main macroeconomic variables until 2025. We hope you find it useful. For questions or comments about this report, please contact Andrés...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 4, 2023

Argentina | 80s Inflation Returns

Download Editorial: 80s Inflation Returns Argentina returns to the 80s in terms of inflation. The numbers for August are going to show something close to 12% per month and September is not looking much better. Perhaps there may be...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• August 28, 2023

Argentina | The IMF Money Is Here… Now What?

Download report Editorial: The IMF Money Is Here... Now What? After many episodes, this season of the IMF novel came to a close. But there are many more seasons in the works. To some extent this one had a...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews