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Rafael Aguilar

EconViews

Rafael Aguilar is studying Economics at the University of Buenos Aires.

He is currently Analyst in Econviews.

Most recent by Rafael Aguilar

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Argentina | Chainsaw Challenges

Download Editorial: Chainsaw Challenges Most economists (including those of us at Econviews) believe that fiscal adjustment is a necessary condition to stabilize the economy. That is to say, Javier Milei has the correct diagnosis. The chainsaw analogy he used in the campaign was somewhat explicit, but no less correct. Not that the other macroeconomic challenges are easy, but this...
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Argentina | Milei Promises Pro-market Policies… Can He Deliver?

Download Editorial: Milei Promises Pro-market Policies… Can He Deliver? Finally it's Milei, hope won over fear and the vote was for change. But the path facing the economy is complex. We are not going to travel on a highway, on the contrary, it is a winding road, bogged down and full of obstacles in which if everything goes well...
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Argentina | Milei: big hopes, big challenges

Download Milei has been elected with roughly 56% of the popular vote, which means that he has a strong mandate to go ahead with his plan for stabilization and structural reforms. On the other hand, he has a small representation in Congress, including only seven senators out of a total of 72, and hence he will have to work...
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Argentina | Milei wins the election, the transition starts immediately

Download Javier Milei beat Sergio Massa with a margin of over 11 points in the second round. He will be Argentina’s president for a period of 4 years starting on 10 December. He will be the first economist to reach the top job and the first libertarian....
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Argentina | There Is No Promised Land Without a Season in the Desert

Download Editorial The Argentine economy accumulates many important problems. It has negative net reserves, Soviet exchange restrictions, an overappreciated exchange rate, 12 months without growth, inflation that has a floor of 180% for this year, and more than 40% of people are below the poverty line. There will be a primary fiscal deficit for the fourteenth consecutive year, there...
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Argentina | A Model With Holes Everywhere

Download Editorial: A Model With Holes Everywhere October's preliminary numbers likely tell the story of a slowdown in prices. Inflation has probably moved between 9 and 10%. In the last quarter, prices rose around 38-39% while the exchange rate rose 26.5%, which marks an important real appreciation. What's Behind the Fuel Shortage -Retail fuel prices lag behind the overall...
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Argentina | EconViews Base Scenario- October 2023

Download Dear clients and friends, We share with you our report “Base Scenario Econviews” that includes projections of the main macroeconomic variables until 2025. We hope you find it useful. For questions or comments about this report, please contact Andrés Borenstein.  Best regards....
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Argentina | The dilemmas of the two-man presidential race

Download The dilemmas of the two-man presidential race Massa was the big winner in the general election and appears to be the front runner in a runoff that is likely to be very tight. The fact that he came in the first position with 37% of the votes was a surprise, as most pollsters were expecting Milei to lead,...
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Argentina | The Need for Structural Reforms

Download Editorial: The Need for Structural Reforms The scenarios are becoming somewhat clearer. Philosophically there is a ruling party embodied in Sergio Massa, who if he wins will have to take charge of the disorders of recent years. Milei and his new alliances probably materialize the hypothesis of a “herbivorous lion”. Although the market's preferred option was left out,...
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Argentina | Massa is the likely next president: continuity rather than change

Sergio Massa was the great winner of the general election but will need to beat Javier Milei in a second round on 19 November. The finance minister obtained 36.68% of the total votes, improving by 9 points his performance in the primaries. Javier Milei retained his 30% while Juntos por el Cambio lost votes in all districts going down...
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Argentina | 900 Reasons for the Run on the Peso

Download Editorial: 900 Reasons for the Run on the Peso The government is not generating any credibility. It insists on patches that have diminishing returns: a special exchange rate for oil exporters, small and medium businesses and now perhaps for the auto industry. Some corners of the ruling coalition say that next year they will have a primary surplus...
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EconViews Base Scenario- September 2023

Dear clients and friends, We share with you our report “Base Scenario Econviews” that includes projections of the main macroeconomic variables until 2025. We hope you find it useful. For questions or comments about this report, please contact Andrés Borenstein.  Best regards. Download...
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Argentina | Waiting for the Turbulence of December: 2015 Reloaded?

Download Editorial: Waiting for the Turbulence of December: 2015 Reloaded? Everything indicates that we are going to have a turbulent December. Memories of other turbulent summers intensify, such as February 1989, which marked the beginning of hyperinflation, or December 2001, when the most traumatic crisis in our history began. In this context, questions are intensifying regarding what may happen...
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Argentina | 2024: from paradise to hell, anything is possible

Download The economic situation continues to deteriorate, and it is now clear that whoever wins the general elections will have a colossal challenge in December. He or she will have to deal with an extremely fragile situation including a high and probably rising rate of inflation, the need to devalue to reduce the FX spread, reduce the fiscal deficit,...
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Argentina | Are We in the Eighties With Electricity and Smartphones?

Download Editorial: Are We in the Eighties With Electricity and Smartphones? With each passing week the feeling that the Argentine economy is approaching the one we experienced in the eighties cannot be avoided. It does not mean that the situation will be exactly the same nor that hyperinflation cannot be avoided. In fact, we fervently believe that an event...
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Argentina | The Inheritance Keeps Getting Worse

Downloads Editorial: The Inheritance Keeps Getting Worse We don't know who is going to win the elections. But we do know that the legacy of problems for the next government has not stopped getting worse in recent weeks. This week's measures are more fuel for the fire. The fiscal deficit will be larger than expected and to make matters...
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Argentina | Income Tax in the Upside Down

Download Editorial: Income Tax in the Upside Down Argentina’s terrible application of the personal income tax is impressive. Last week it was YPF employees and now Massa is doubling the bet with a proposal to eliminate the income tax. This makes no sense from an economic point of view and is absolutely regressive. The Direction of the Real Economy...
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EconViews Base Scenario- August 2023

Download Dear clients and friends,  We share with you our report “Base Scenario Econviews” that includes projections of the main macroeconomic variables until 2025. We hope you find it useful. For questions or comments about this report, please contact Andrés Borenstein.  Best regards. ...
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Argentina | 80s Inflation Returns

Download Editorial: 80s Inflation Returns Argentina returns to the 80s in terms of inflation. The numbers for August are going to show something close to 12% per month and September is not looking much better. Perhaps there may be some slowdown in October. But we enter a terrain of high nominality. Effective rates that already exceed 200% for fixed...
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Argentina | The IMF Money Is Here… Now What?

Download report Editorial: The IMF Money Is Here… Now What? After many episodes, this season of the IMF novel came to a close. But there are many more seasons in the works. To some extent this one had a happy ending. The board approved the disbursement and Argentina had access to the 7.5 billion dollars. Will Inflation Prevent the...
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Argentina | MONTHLY EconViews #230 – August, 2023

Download report The PASO primaries changed the electoral outlook The primary elections came with many surprises. The big winner was Javier Milei, who was in the radar and was thought to be competitive, though nobody expected that he would end in first place and obtain 30% of the votes. Rodriguez Larreta was the big loser, as he lost badly the...
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Argentina | The Week at a Glance- August 22nd, 2023

Download report Editorial: The Problems of Dollarization Javier Milei's victory brought into focus the dollarization plan for which the candidate for president has been fighting. Our opinion is that dollarization is a plan that should be considered as a last resort because we believe that there are better options to stabilize the economy. Maintaining a shock policy that lowers...
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Argentina | A Black Swan With All the Options Open

Editorial: A Black Swan With All the Options Open The result of the primary election in Argentina delivered important surprises. Javier Milei, who was supposed to come third, emerged as the winner. His party obtained 30.04% of the votes followed by Juntos por el Cambio (main opposition) with 28.27% and then the government with 27.27%. This almost rules out...
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The Central Bank Walks on the Tightrope

Editorial: The Central Bank Walks on the TightropeWhen hiring staff at the Central Bank, they should put experience as a tightrope walker or juggler as exclusive requirements. Clearly that ability came into play in these last few days. On Friday 28th, it managed to wring a billion dollars from the Andean Development Corporation (CAF) to pay maturities last Monday....
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Argentina | Base Scenario – July 2023

Dear clients and friends,  We share with you our report “Base Scenario Econviews” that includes projections of the main macroeconomic variables until 2025. We hope you find it useful. For questions or comments about this report, please contact Andrés Borenstein.  Best regards.  Download report...
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