US Jobs | BTPs | Current Views Appraisal/Update
Calling the market right, but for the wrong reasons
Iran-Israel | OSINT | Hezbollah Founding & CIA
Was the Haniyeh strike from nearby inside Tehran? How Hezbollah came about
S&P 500 | Still Looks A Little Cheap If Earnings Growth Continues
After the rally, S&P 500 still looks a little cheap if earnings growth continues
“AI Bubbles” | US Economy & Election Polls
AI/Big Tech sell-off to last? Polling nightmares and uncertainty for Republicans
US Economy | Eurozone | Israel-Hamas
A brief update on current themes and outlooks
US/French Election | Heuristics | Critical Thinking
Which industry has the best analysts? US/French election poll comments/feedback
Paul Tucker | Credit Suisse Failure & LOLR
Credit Suisse failure exposes key weakness in Swiss banking regulation
US Election | Polling Errors, Bias & Forecasting
Are polls biased against Trump? Dusting off our 2020 ‘model’ to forecast 2024 results. Germany go through
Ozempic Pregnancies | US Election Polls | Iran
Nate Silver US election model review. Women on Ozempic and contraceptives becoming pregnant. Hats & turbans in the ring for Iran election
US Inflation | Ellison & AI | BTP/Bund Spread
Tech bros vs. a real man. Rationale for BTP/Bund spread idea. FOMC takes