NIGERIA: A crisis going to waste
Both houses of the National Assembly continue to discuss the amended 2020 budget this week and are likely to pass it eventually with few alterations. Yet more than ever, the budget will remain a mere statement of intent, with available pointers suggesting budget implementation will lag even the revised revenue and expenditure targets for 2020. […]
NIGERIA: Buhari’s new chief of staff
On 13 May, President Muhamadu Buhari presented his new chief of staff, the veteran diplomat Ibrahim Gambari (75). Gambari presents a ‘like-for-like’ replacement for the late Abba Kyari. While loyalty was arguably a key selection criterion for Buhari, Gambari’s deep international … Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or […]
NIGERIA: The belt-tightening continues
On 5 May, Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed hosted a “Citizens Dialogue Session on Government Fiscal Policy Decisions in Response to the Fall in Oil Prices and the COVID-19 Pandemic”. New forecasts presented at the event paint a bleak picture concerning the fiscal revenue situation, … Become a member to read the rest of this […]
NIGERIA: What is the potential for meaningful reform?
Following IMF’s approval of USD 3.4bn emergency funding, it remains to be seen whether the fiscal crisis engendered by the Covid-19 pandemic may accelerate long-avoided macroeconomic and fiscal adjustments. The government signaled its willingness to engage in pro-market reforms i… Become a member to read the rest of this article
NIGERIA: The CBN has its unconventional way, again
On 24 April, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) apparently debited about 30 banks a total of NGN 1.47trn (USD 3.8bn) for failing to comply with regulatory thresholds. As the CBN’s monetary policy continues to oscillate between measures aimed at defending the naira and stimulating … Become a member to read the rest of […]
NIGERIA: Major policy changes unlikely following death of chief of staff
On 17 April, Abba Kyari, President Muhammadu Buhari’s chief of staff, died after having contracted Covid-19 in March. Kyari was very close to Buhari and arguably the most powerful man within the administration. Buhari is unlikely to name an official replacement any time soon but … Become a member to read the rest of […]
NIGERIA: OPEC+ production cuts would be credit negative, if obeyed
During the 9 April OPEC+ meeting, Nigeria apparently consented to cut production to 1.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May and June, and to 1.5 mbpd from July until the end of the year. How sincere the government is about such steep production cuts will be swiftly put to a tes… Become a […]
NIGERIA: Calling 911
● The government has requested a cumulative USD 6.9bn from multilateral institutions. ● While the government is keen to secure funding without committing to an IMF program, the Fund will likely want to see an up-front reform commitment. ● Pointing to the dire state of publi… Become a member to read the rest of […]
NIGERIA: The lock-down experiment
The two-week lockdown of Abuja and Lagos enacted this week is a litmus test of the extent to which Nigeria can implement measures designed in and for rich economies in containing the spread of Covid-19. As President Muhammadu Buhari’s influential chief of staff Abba Kyari has tes… Become a member to read the rest […]
NIGERIA: CBN caving in to FX pressure, but not without a fight
The official response to the oil price crash and the COVID-19-induced economic crisis continues to evolve at a rapid pace. The division of labor is clear: the federal government zeroes in on cutting expenditure and shoring up the shrinking revenue base, while it falls to the Cent… Become a member to read the rest […]