“Pakistan and India are like divorced parents who cannot stop arguing, even when the house is on fire.”
India-Pakistan Conflict
While the rest of us were mesmerised by a 7–6 Champions League semi-final thriller at the San Siro, the neighbouring cricketing nations armed with nuclear weapons decided to launch airstrikes. Hopefully, the tit-for-tat exchanges remain contained and largely performative.
In theory, nuclear deterrence is meant to mutually prevent conventional wars from spiralling out of control. As such, risk/threat perceptions among outsiders may be inflated compared to those of locals. India and Pakistan have been at each other’s throats since the partition in 1947.
Despite both nations making rapid strides toward becoming nuclear-armed states in the 1990s, progress in nuclear diplomacy has lagged. Not to take sides, but Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is notably loose in its rhetoric—to put it mildly. Official statements such as ‘Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not for display in museums, but to be used if necessary' are hardly reassuring or standard rhetoric in nuclear arms control.
U.S.-Houthi Ceasefire Agreement
For reference: Nighttime Houthi missile launches toward Israel are aimed at generating fear and disruption, whereas daytime operations are more likely to reach their targets.
On Tuesday, President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis, catching many in Israel by surprise. In response, Netanyahu’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, flew to Washington on Wednesday to meet with the White House. Trump described the accord struck with the Houthis as a “capitulation,” declaring the U.S. operation a success for reopening the sea lanes for commercial shipping through the Red Sea.
According to the Houthis and Omani intermediaries, the understanding applies solely to U.S. naval assets. The Houthis have announced that attacks against Israel, they insist, will continue as long as the IDF maintains operations in Gaza. Let’s see how it plays out. It could well be part of a broader set of Middle East agreements yet to be announced shortly.
Needless to say, those with even a basic understanding of the Yemen war’s history are hardly surprised if this turns out to be the case—i.e., a reversion to the status quo prior to U.S. involvement. It took Saudi Arabia nearly a decade of bombing the Houthis from next door—using more or less the same weapons—before conceding. At least this time, it only took six weeks to reach the same conclusion, costing the U.S. an estimated $1.5 billion in munitions, most of which landed on Yemeni civilian infrastructure. The Houthis have begun submitting claims for damages.
By the Pentagon’s own admission, U.S. Air Force bunker-buster bombs failed to degrade the Houthi missile stockpile or launch capabilities. Now that there’s a truce, perhaps they can retrieve the two F/A-18 Hornets that fell overboard the USS Truman into the Red Sea this past week—for spare parts.
In late March, a proposal was floated to launch a ground offensive in Yemen against the Houthis, led by Saudi-backed mercenaries and the UAE-aligned Axis of Succession. The Saudis quickly rejected the plan, and U.S. air defense assets available for deployment in the region were in short supply.
The transcripts from the Signalgate saga make a lot more sense if you mentally replace the word “Europeans” with “Israelis.” The Europeans never asked the U.S. to reopen the Red Sea route, and the Houthis had previously targeted only Israeli-owned or Israel-bound vessels.
Israel
The travel itinerary of senior Israeli Foreign Ministry officials has been notably light for the past several months—both inbound and outbound visits. Trump is not scheduled to stop in Israel during his Middle East tour next week. Meanwhile, die-hard American supporters of Israel have increasingly turned their criticism toward every past U.S. administration since Obama. It’s a remarkable achievement to have made the Iranian regime appear as a reasonable and rational actor.
In short, all but one of the key actors in the Middle East appear to want peace and stability in the region—so they can focus on pursuing their economic development goals.
Other News
President Trump is expected to announce a tentative U.S. trade deal with the UK later today—akin to bragging about landing a prom date with your cousin. On the plus side, at least he’s shown more pragmatism in pursuing his goals than some of his predecessors.
Here’s the legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones sharing his thoughts on AI with CNBC. He recently attended a highly exclusive “conference” of just 40 top-tier attendees in the field, somewhere on the West Coast. The way he describes the events, we suspect the Healdsburg tech preppers might have abducted him for a ceremony at their ranch. And he sounds like he just got off the “connecting flight.” It’s an amusing interview, especially the second half.
Nevertheless, anyone who can raise $75 million at his charity events—and has consistently done so for novel causes over many years—is, without question, a true legend.
