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US Economy | Sahm Rule | A better recession indicator?

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The most recent whipsaw in long-term rates seems to have knocked the wind of many sails to end a dismal year in terms of performance.

How we got here

When the Fed started raising short-term interest rates they said it would lead to a recession. When the recession did ...

 

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US Economy | Sahm Rule | A better recession indicator?

We a give brief background introduction to the Sahm Rule and examine whether claims of superior predictive powers in forecasting a recession are well