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Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?

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by Claudio Borio
The concept of the natural rate of interest, or r-star (r*), has risen to prominence in monetary policy following the Great Financial Crisis. No doubt a key reason for the concept’s newfound prominence has been the further decline of real and nominal interest rates to new lows, which has further constrained monetary policy’s room for manoeuvre. This lecture explores the extent to which the concept can be a useful guide to policy. It concludes that, depending on how it is employed, the concept has the potential of leading policy astray and of complicating the task of regaining the needed policy headroom.

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Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?

by Claudio BorioThe concept of the natural rate of interest, or r-star (r*), has risen to prominence in monetary policy following the Great Financial