Protests across Russia are likely to continue until the resolution of Alexey Navalny’s case. This puts the Kremlin in a challenging position to limit Navalny’s influence and constrain the protests’ momentum without exacerbating public discontent and provoking a tougher international response.… Read the rest
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned on 26 January, just one week after he barely survived a confidence vote in the Senate that highlighted the weakness of his coalition government. Conte tendered his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella, the ultimate arbiter in any formal government crisis, who invited him to stay on in a caretaker position.… Read the rest
A renewed debate has emerged about the infamous debt brake after, in a newspaper op-ed, the chief of Angela Merkel’s chancellery argued for changing the constitution to effectively abandon the rule. This, however, remains highly unlikely. Instead, the more interesting question is whether the next government might drop the “black zero” policy of balanced budgets, at least using its 0.35% of GDP deficit leeway under the existing debt brake once the pandemic emergency is over.… Read the rest
On 26 January, President Muhammadu Buhari replaced the four service chiefs in the first reshuffle of the military top brass since taking office in 2015. Given the persistently deteriorating security situation, the move could have been made long ago; however, a particular string of bad news in recent weeks, coupled with the realization that certain tainted personnel may become an obstacle to improving security cooperation with the new US administration, may have provided the final trigger.… Read the rest
The death from Covid-19 of Defense Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo yesterday, 26 January, highlights two challenges facing President Ivan Duque’s government. Most immediately, the public health situation is very serious, while the government is increasingly under fire for being slow off the mark with its vaccine plan.… Read the rest