RUSSIA: Quick sanctions over protests and Navalny’s arrest unlikely
Protests across Russia are likely to continue until the resolution of Alexey Navalny’s case. This puts the Kremlin in a challenging position to limit Navalny’s influence and constrain the protests’ momentum without exacerbating public discontent and provoking a tougher internat… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password […]
SPAIN: Catalan elections and coalition infighting still main risks to watch
Assuming the 14 February Catalan elections take place (a court must still confirm that the vote can be held), its results are likely to have an important bearing on national politics. A defeat of the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) at the hands of the Socialist Party … Become a member to read the […]
NIGERIA: Overdue military reshuffle may smooth US security relations
On 26 January, President Muhammadu Buhari replaced the four service chiefs in the first reshuffle of the military top brass since taking office in 2015. Given the persistently deteriorating security situation, the move could have been made long ago; however, a particular string o… Become a member to read the rest of this article
ITALY: No quick fix
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned on 26 January, just one week after he barely survived a confidence vote in the Senate that highlighted the weakness of his coalition government. Conte tendered his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella, the ultimate arbiter in any forma… Become a member to read the rest of this article
SOUTH AFRICA: Vaccine politics
Facing a backlash over its vaccine strategy, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration is scrambling to reassure South Africans that some 30mn vaccines are in the pipeline. Yet few further details regarding vaccination plans were provided at the latest ANC National Exec… Become a member to read the rest of this article
GERMANY: Black zero, not debt brake is the true signpost
A renewed debate has emerged about the infamous debt brake after, in a newspaper op-ed, the chief of Angela Merkel’s chancellery argued for changing the constitution to effectively abandon the rule. This, however, remains highly unlikely. Instead, the more interesting question is… Become a member to read the rest of this article
PHILIPPINES: Government considers some food price controls
Pork and vegetable prices have risen substantially over the past few weeks due to supply problems. While President Rodrigo Duterte has so far avoided any major fallout from the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic, persistent food inflation may be more politically problemati… Become a member to read the rest of this article
CHINA: Ant group crackdown unlikely to extend to other private sector firms
Following the suspension of Ant’s USD 35bn IPO in November, subsequent regulatory actions have clarified the nature of regulators’ concerns about Alibaba/Ant. These actions suggest that the crackdown is primarily a response to specific concerns about a few large internet… Become a member to read the rest of this article
COLOMBIA: Minister’s death puts spotlight on pandemic and succession challenges
The death from Covid-19 of Defense Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo yesterday, 26 January, highlights two challenges facing President Ivan Duque’s government. Most immediately, the public health situation is very serious, while the government is increasingly under fire for being s… Become a member to read the rest of this article