Day: January 4, 2021

Emerging Markets

Monthly currency seasonality: Down and out?

This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks (see “Nominal Effective Exchange Rates: Monthly seasonal patterns”, 10 January 2019).Read the rest

Politics

WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

China has approved Sinopharm’s Covid-19 vaccine for general use. The new border arrangement between the UK and the EU will be tested after the holiday season. Ghana’s president will officially start his second term. In Italy, tensions within the coalition could bring down the government.… Read the rest

Politics

JAPAN: Suga on the defensive as government prepares new state of emergency

  • Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga held his first press conference of the year on Monday, 4 January, in which he indicated that his government is considering declaring a state of emergency as early as Thursday, 7 January.
  • Suga’s handling of the pandemic has contributed to a sharp decline in his popularity, threatening his survival ahead of a party leadership election and general election this year.
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Emerging Markets

MOZAMBIQUE: Dramatic escalation of security threat to LNG ventures

  • Total evacuated most of its personnel from Palma and the Afungi peninsula last week, ahead of insurgent attacks on the doorstep of its LNG site on 1 January.
  • Total’s unprecedented measure and extensive insurgency-related disruption to transport along mainland and maritime routes represent a major setback for a project on which Mozambique’s entire sovereign outlook hinges.
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Politics

LATAM PULSE

This week, Ecuador holds the first round of its presidential election. Brazil holds a crucial lower house leadership vote, while there is expectation over possible vaccine moves. Mexico’s Congress starts the final session before the June mid-term elections, while the Covid-19 crisis remains more serious than ever.… Read the rest

Emerging Markets

INDIA: An uptick in the economy and Indian vaccines eclipsed by farmer protests

Farmer protests, which laid siege to New Delhi in early December and grow by the day, could not have come at a worse time for the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. Everything was heading in the right direction: the economy seemed to be turning the corner with expectations that the GDP contraction might not be as severe as feared; and the nation was ready to roll out two Indian Covid-19 vaccines.Read the rest