Sterling underperformed in September, in line with our bearish forecast (UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy, 4th September 2020). It gradually recovered from 22nd September, appreciated throughout October and peaked on 27th November.
Sterling NEER has since weakened about 2.4% to an 11-week low.… Read the rest
LlewellynConsulting’s Ten developments to watch for in 2021, and beyond details what we judge most likely to happen; and pays particular attention to detailing what we see as the main risks and uncertainties.
Vice-President Cristina Fernandez (CFK)’s latest open letter published on 9 December is another reminder that her over-riding objective is the pursuit of legal impunity for herself and her children. It also points to a political strategy akin to a “bad bank” scheme in which President Alberto Fernandez assumes all the risks of governing and bears the costs of a looming fiscal retrenchment, while CFK remains at arm’s length in a bid to preserve her political capital into the medium- to long-term.… Read the rest
Due to a toxic mix of over-ambitious policy objectives, aggressive nationalism, and colossal policy miscalculations, Turkey is set to reach a rather peculiar, if not unique, record: becoming a country that has been officially sanctioned by Russia, the US, and the EU.… Read the rest