GERMANY: Budget 2021 – A glimpse at the fault lines of post-Merkel politics
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet has signed off on the draft budget for 2021 as well as the medium-term fiscal plan until 2024. As national debt is expected to re-increase to around 80% of GDP, and the constitutional “debt brake” will be paused for another year, the fiscal deba… Become a member to read the […]
EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching
In this updated weekly piece, we provide snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Spain With daily cases above 3… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Global growth: Collapse, Recovery, Slowdown…repeat?
We are sticking to our forecast, first set out in Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick (5th June 2020) that global GDP, which contracted about 7.0% qoq in Q2 (a number flattered by China’s GDP), will rise a record-high 3.0% qoq in Q3. However, this implies that wor… Become a member to […]
Aggregate demand policy in a time of COVID
Large increases in government expenditure generally necessitate restraint elsewhere However at present significant resources are lying idle: no such sacrifice is needed Hence increases in government exenditure currently need not be financed by borrowing Neither need they b… Become a member to read the rest of this article
SRI LANKA: Surviving Between a Rock and a Hard Place
SummaryAsset ClassCreditQualityHigh yieldGeographySri LankaSectorSovereignDate24 SEP 2020 Executive Summary In our last report dated 12-May-20, we highlighted the fact that Sri Lanka will not default this year. We also compared Sri Lanka with its closest Asian peers such a… Become a member to read the rest of this article