Report

Asian central bank policy rates – scalpel not knife

Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)
February 7, 2020

The pace of central bank policy rate cuts has slowed sharply in the past few months (see Figure 1), in line with our view (see Early Christmas for (still weak) global growth, 11th December 2019).
While the emerging market central bank policy rate has fallen a further 20bp since l...

Become a member to read the rest of this article

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

Subscribe to receive updates from 4X Global Research (4XGR)

Most recent by 4X Global Research (4XGR)

<img src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/4xgr_square_logo_larger.png" />

report

May 28, 2021

Tantrum “lite” won’t help US Dollar

US financial markets have had to contend with three “hawkish surprises” so far this month and on each occasion price action has been broadly the same. Initially the Dollar rallied, the S&P 500 sold off and US Treasury yields...

4X Global Research (4XGR)

<img src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/4xgr_square_logo_larger.png" />

report

May 14, 2021

US markets playing along to Fed tune…for now

Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments ten days ago were merely a temporary distraction. Perhaps more surprisingly, at first glance, the release on Wednesday of a much larger-than-expected increase in US CPI-inflation in April has not had much “sticking power”. Core...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

<img data-src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/cropped-itunes_logo.001-100x100.png" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" class="lazyload" style="--smush-placeholder-width: 100px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 100/100;" /><noscript><img src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/cropped-itunes_logo.001-100x100.png" />

report

April 1, 2021

Crunch time for Singapore Dollar and Renminbi

We estimate that the USD-value of central bank FX reserves – adjusted for currency-valuation effects – in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand rose by about $342bn (1.5% of GDP) between end-March 2020 and end-February...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

<img data-src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/cropped-itunes_logo.001-100x100.png" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" class="lazyload" style="--smush-placeholder-width: 100px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 100/100;" /><noscript><img src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/cropped-itunes_logo.001-100x100.png" />

report

March 26, 2021

Non-Japan Asia: NEERs and FX intervention

Non-Japan Asian (NJA) central banks’ foreign currency (FX) reserves have gradually increased since end-March 2020, arguably the peak in global risk aversion. We estimate that the aggregate US Dollar-value of FX reserves in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines,...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

<img data-src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/cropped-itunes_logo.001-100x100.png" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" class="lazyload" style="--smush-placeholder-width: 100px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 100/100;" /><noscript><img src="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/cropped-itunes_logo.001-100x100.png" />

report

March 19, 2021

EM currencies: Central bank friends and foes

The Fed updated “dot-chart” of all FOMC members’ expectations of the appropriate policy rate points to only an incrementally less dovish stance. Based on a weighted average FOMC members still only expect one 25bp hike by end-2023, according to...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)