Leaders of the ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) nations met virtually on Tuesday, 14 April, and then with their counterparts from China, South Korea and Japan (the so-called “+3” countries) on the same day.… Read the rest
● Reports of more activity in the disputed maritime zones in the South China Sea do not signal an immediate increase in risk.
● China may be opportunistically taking advantage of distracted governments.… Read the rest
Specific issues could arise in several countries next week.
President Joko Widodo continues to argue against both shelter-in-place (or home containment as it is referred to in other Southeast Asian countries) and the quarantining of the populated island of Java from the rest of the archipelago – a move that could backfire politically if the numbers of the diagnosed and fatalities post a sustained and significant increase in the coming weeks.… Read the rest
● An increase in COVID-19 cases in many countries this week is likely to lead to more restrictions on movement and business in the coming days.
● Approaches continue to vary, from the relatively light measures of Myanmar and Laos to the stringent tightening in the Philippines and Malaysia—all with potentially-different political consequences.… Read the rest
● Covid-19 cases are low in Southeast Asia.
● One possible reason could be deficiencies in diagnostic capabilities.
● Response capabilities vary within the region and porous borders are a concern.… Read the rest
● For the first time in decades the region may lack a strong external geopolitical driver.
● This will put domestic concerns at the forefront of policy decisions.
● Elections could be disruptive even if broad stability concerns are low.… Read the rest
