NIGERIA: The belt-tightening continues
On 5 May, Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed hosted a “Citizens Dialogue Session on Government Fiscal Policy Decisions in Response to the Fall in Oil Prices and the COVID-19 Pandemic”. New forecasts presented at the event paint a bleak picture concerning the fiscal revenue situation, … Become a member to read the rest of this […]
NIGERIA: The CBN has its unconventional way, again
On 24 April, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) apparently debited about 30 banks a total of NGN 1.47trn (USD 3.8bn) for failing to comply with regulatory thresholds. As the CBN’s monetary policy continues to oscillate between measures aimed at defending the naira and stimulating … Become a member to read the rest of […]
MOZAMBIQUE: IMF funding expedited, LNG delays worsening
● Financial support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is being expedited, albeit under emergency facilities rather than a full program. ● However, the LNG outlook is turning from bad to disastrous amid speculation that ExxonMobil could postpone bringing its Rovuma LNG p… Become a member to read the rest of this article
RUSSIA: Low oil prices and Covid-19 push Moscow to OPEC+ deal
● The steep drop in global oil prices and the deepening of the Covid-19 crisis at home has forced Russia to accept significant oil production cuts at the latest round of OPEC+ meetings. ● The technical details of the deal and Moscow’s reluctance to comply with the previous OPEC+… Become a member to read […]
SAUDI ARABIA: Truce in the oil price war, but long-term challenges persist
● In a week of drawn-out oil production negotiations, Saudi Arabia managed to preserve OPEC+ and seemingly deliver a win to US President Donald Trump. ● Sustained low oil prices will squeeze reform and modernization efforts in Saudi Arabia, but it will not end them. When Saud… Become a member to read the rest […]
NIGERIA: OPEC+ production cuts would be credit negative, if obeyed
During the 9 April OPEC+ meeting, Nigeria apparently consented to cut production to 1.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May and June, and to 1.5 mbpd from July until the end of the year. How sincere the government is about such steep production cuts will be swiftly put to a tes… Become a […]
COLOMBIA: IMF backstop is positive but oil price vulnerability remains headache
Despite publicly contemplating a loosening of physical distancing measures, President Ivan Duque on 6 April announced that they would be extended until 27 April; the quarantine started on 25 March. The decision does not just reflect the World Health Organization (WHO)’s warnings … Become a member to read the rest of this article
NIGERIA: Calling 911
● The government has requested a cumulative USD 6.9bn from multilateral institutions. ● While the government is keen to secure funding without committing to an IMF program, the Fund will likely want to see an up-front reform commitment. ● Pointing to the dire state of publi… Become a member to read the rest of […]
SAUDI ARABIA/RUSSIA: The challenges and limitations of a US-brokered deal
● Saudi Arabia’s principal financial problem is a collapse in global oil demand due to the Covid-19 crisis. ● The oil price war that has broken out between Russia and Saudi Arabia exacerbates the effects of diminished prices, but an end to that price war will not by itself res… Become a member to […]
NIGERIA: The lock-down experiment
The two-week lockdown of Abuja and Lagos enacted this week is a litmus test of the extent to which Nigeria can implement measures designed in and for rich economies in containing the spread of Covid-19. As President Muhammadu Buhari’s influential chief of staff Abba Kyari has tes… Become a member to read the rest […]