EUROPE: Political risks to managing second waves
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: G20 debt moratorium initiative slowly gathering pace
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CHINA: Beijing outbreak tests effectiveness of half measures
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MACRO: Exit Strategies & Economic Policy Outlook
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LATAM PULSE
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BRAZIL: Covid-19 “data pedaling” averted, institution-bashing calms down
The episode of suppressing Covid-19 data has reached a reasonable ending.
Pressures from manifestos, the streets, and Supreme Court-mandated investigations have produced a new Bolsonaro – for now.
Fears of radical institutional instability were not irrational but based on significant signs from the government.
The president has succeeded in building a bulwark in Congress to prevent an impeachment or trials.
ASIA: Weekly politics update
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INDIA: Modi escapes the blame – for now
The recent resignation of two elected opposition (Congress I) lawmakers from their positions in the Gujarat provincial legislative assembly and their subsequent defection to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would not normally have caused political waves.
GREECE: Well positioned to deal with economic recession
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stands in a strong position after he dealt successfully with the coronavirus outbreak. Less than 200 people have died, and the country prepares to open to tourists from 1 July.
Economically, things are more challenging for the center-right New Democracy (ND) government as real GDP growth moved into negative territory in Q1 and there are concerns that a decimated tourism season will be the main driver of a deep recession.
However, robust economic support from European institutions and, critically, overall political stability provide Greece with a unique opportunity to register a faster-than-expected recovery.
EUROPE: Political risks to managing second waves
Continued ECB activity has bought EU policymakers time to deliver a response to the economic fallout from Covid-19.
From a Brussels perspective, the biggest challenges are timing and coordination.
Beyond fiscal constraints, domestic politics and institutional capacity pose the biggest hurdles for delivering effective and timely economic recovery packages in several countries.