Chris Crowe On End Of Safe Asset Shortage
In this episode, I talk with Chris Crowe. Chris is Head of Economic & Flow Research at one of the world’s leading hedge funds, Capula Investment Management. He was previously UK Economist at Barclays for two years and prior to that, worked at the IMF for five years. He has also published in top economic journals. In this podcast we discuss: Why bond yields have trended down in recent decades The role of safe assets in this downtrend Likely shifts in the supply and demand of safe assets and impact on bonds Whether central banks have been captured by fiscal authorities Whether the Fed will move to yield curve control Whether Fed or BoE will move to negative rates US economic outlook How Brexit and COVID are impacting UK Germany vs rest in EU
Saeed Amen On Trading Models, Alternative Data And Python
In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of “Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today” and is the coauthor of “The Book of Alternative Data”, which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss: Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry How to design good trading models. Avoiding data mining Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded Why trend-following models have underperformed Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows Importance of reducing transaction costs Types of alternative data How to use news data The non-technical challenges of using alternative data Why Python is an important complement to Excel
Lord Mervyn King On The Wrong Use Of Monetary Policy In A Radically Uncertain World
In this episode, I talk with Lord Mervyn King. He needs no introduction, except to say he is one of the leading figures in central banking over the past few decades. He served for ten years as the Governor of the Bank of England, which included dealing with the 2008 financial crisis. He’s written a number of books including the recent bestseller with co-author John Kay “Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making Beyond the Numbers”. Here’s what we talk about: Defining uncertainty – difference between radical uncertainty and black swans Use of narratives to understand uncertainty Importance of resilience and preparedness Why central banks have done too much during COVID The importance of fiscal and other policies to deal with major economic challenges His view on negative rates Should central banks mandates be changed to target financial imbalances and inequality Could inflation head higher? Is climate change the only long-term risk to consider? How his work on radical uncertainty has changes his view of economics
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut On The V-Shaped Recovery And Return Of Inflation
In this episode, I talk with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut. She’s an accomplished macro thinker that has worked at leading hedge fund Bridgewater, the NY Fed and the IMF. She’s also been an early advocate for a V-shaped recovery. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Why a V-shaped recovery is likely 2. The panic pandemic 3. How productivity could jump after COVID 4. What could see inflation rise 5. How income inequality is distorting the economy 6. The coming backlash against monopolies 7. Why expansion of central bank balance sheets is not a problem 8. China’s new assertiveness 9. The possible demise of the Hong Kong Dollar 10. Germany saves Europe 11. View on equities You can find most of Dominique’s views on macrohive.com.
Professor Alex Edmans on How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose And Profit
In this episode, I talk with Professor Alex Edmans from the London Business School. He’s one of the world’s leading academics on company purpose, social value and profits. In fact, he’s just come out with a book on the subject called “Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit”. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Is a company’s sole purpose to deliver profits? 2. How markets do not correctly price in social value in the short-term 3. The problem with restrictions on executive pay 4. Could hedge fund activism be helpful? 5. How the management styles of Continental Europe compare to the Anglo-Saxon model 6. Creating the “growing the pie” mindset 7. How to define purpose and use it to run a business 8. Is the financial sector useful? 9. Is there a place for share buybacks? 10. Does ESG work? 11. How companies should deal with COVID 12. Time management tips 13. The pitfalls of managing a team in lockdown.
Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg On Leaning Against The Rally
In this episode, I talk with Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg. He is the Head of Asset Allocation at one the world’s largest asset managers, Legal and General. His fund is one of the fastest growing multi-asset funds and has been a top quartile performer over the last five years. In his own word, Emiel replaced rowing with French Fries, but has continued to instill the teamwork from his rowing team into his investment team. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Why markets have recently rallied 2. The earnings challenge for equities and his preference for credit 3. The dominance of tech and tactical picks in equity laggards 4. The Thucydides trap for US-China and the risk of messy transitions between hegemons 5.How COVID could accelerate populism 6.The Dutch concerns around EU integration 7. Permanent scarring of the global economy from COVID 8. Re-opening approaches that minimize economic impact 9. Current favourite trade ideas 10. How to structure and manage teams for success 11. The pitfalls of managing a team in lockdown You can follow Emiel’s and his team’s thoughts on the LGIM blog here.
Alfonso Prat-Gay On How To Save Emerging Countries
In this episode, I talk with Alfonso Prat-Gay. He was Governor of the central bank of Argentina from 2002 to 2004 and later Argentina’s Finance Minister between 2015-2016. I had the pleasure of working under Alfonso during my J.P Morgan days in the late 1990s, and I hold him up to be one of my most influential mentors. We also have a scoop about Alfonso and the Bank of England. On the podcast, we cover a very wide range of topics including: 1. The pre-COVID global trends from the US’s incorrect policy mix to slowing Chinese growth 2.Why Latin America has struggled with growth for decades 3. Why COVID hurts the poor the most economically 4. How can emerging markets escape the middle-income trap 5. The challenges of being a policymaker in Latin America 6. The failure of the IMF 7. The lack of leadership in Latin America 8. The possibility of using QE by emerging markets 9. What the UK needs during Brexit 10. Argentina’s restructuring The podcast is longer than normal, but it’s well worth the listen.
Juliette Declercq On Why Equities Are Not Overvalued
In this episode, I talk markets with Juliette Declercq. She’s a leading macro strategist and runs JDI research. She has close to twenty years market experience, including stints at J.P Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Stone Milliner. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. Why using past recessions is not a guide to the COVID crisis 2. Why P/E ratios are a poor guide to equity valuation 3. Not putting too much weight on weak employment data 4. Why Euro-area break-up trades are not attractive 5. Her view on the dollar and euro 6. The prospects of inflation.
Bobby Vedral On Euro Area Tensions, Brexit And US Elections
In this episode, I talk politics and markets with Bobby Vedral. He’s a top macro and political analyst who runs Macro Eagle. He is also the UK representative of the German Economic Council, which focuses on the German-British relationship post-Brexit. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs, where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The structural consequences of the COVID crisis 2. What the stress points are for the Euro-area and which countries are at the center of tensions 3. How the latest German constitutional court ruling could constrain the ECB 4. What’s going to happen with Brexit 5. The widening China/rest of the world political rift 6. Why Biden would likely beat Trump in elections and the importance of Biden’s VP pick 7. The problem with big tech’s monopoly 8. The future of climate change policy and ESG 9. The dramatic increase in risks of global political brinkmanship Bobby gives a very thoughtful and often different from consensus view on key political issues of the day, so make sure to listen to the whole episode. You can reach him at info@macroeagle.com.
Martin Wolf On The Scale Of The COVID Crisis, Future Debt Problems And US Isolationism
In this episode, I have a wide-ranging conversation with the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator, Martin Wolf. He brings a depth to any topic that is often lacking anywhere else. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The parallels of the COVID crisis with past crises such as the ones seen in the 1970s 2. The uniqueness of this crisis 3. How well policymakers have done so far 4. The role of international organisations and US hegemony 5. The challenge for EM countries 6. How China will be viewed after this crisis 7. What tensions will emerge in the EU 8. How the world will look differently after COVID