Jon Turek on the New Fed Put, the Brainard US Curve Steepener and the Dollar
Jon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy, rates markets and the dollar. In this podcast, we discuss: How to think about the Fed’s new framework. The rates trade that captures this shift – the Brainard steepener! Why a taper tantrum is less likely this time. Why the ECB could be more comfortable with euro strength. How the Georgia senate elections complicated the weak dollar trade. Why precious metals may struggle even with low rates. Why technical issues around the Fed balance sheet are overstated. Are equities expensive? Will US/Euro rates divergence trades work? Books that influenced Jon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Market Wizards (Schwager) and More Money Than God (Mallaby).
Barry Eichengreen on Dollar Dominance, Crypto Hype, and Reforming International Finance
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Barry Eichengreen is one of the leading thinkers on international economics and exchanges rates. He is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a prolific author including most recently The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018) and How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future (2017). In this podcast, we discuss: Why past pandemics are a poor guide to the COVID pandemic. Have we reached peak political polarization? Has financial globalisation constrained central bankers? Could the Chinese yuan displace the US dollar as dominant currency? The recipe for being the top reserve currency. The status of the Euro. Why crypto will not topple the dollar. The two key reforms for the international financial system. Books that influenced Barry: The World In Depression 1929-1939 (Kindleberger), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz), The Yellen class note (not available online)
Eli Dourado on the Key Tech Breakthroughs For the 2020s
Eli is an economist and regulatory hacker living in Washington, DC, and a senior research fellow at the Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University. Before that he was head of global policy at Boon supersonic. In this podcast, we discuss: Why we haven’t a replacement for Concorde (yet) How vaccine/mRNA breakthrough can help with HIV and cancers Anti-ageing and blood plasma transfer The problem of energy storage and renewables Breakthroughs in geothermal energy The future of transportation SpaceX Starship could open a new frontier in space travel Minitiarisation of chips and circuits and ‘escaping’ Moore’s law Why Ethereum has a brighter future than Bitcoin A book that influenced Eli: Finite and Infinite Games (Carse)
12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners
Happy new year and welcome to our first podcast of 2021. In this episode, we try something different and have curated the best investment ideas from our listeners. They’re a smart bunch so well worth listening to. Here are the ideas discussed: Buying clean energy (Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ET [PBW]) – Rohan Yelvigi (NY) Buying Japan stocks (iShares MSCI Japan ETF [EWJ]) – Peter Repetto (NY) Buying healthcare and financial sector equity volatility – Stephen Howard (HK) Position for equity correction – Lorenzo Lorenzi (Milan) Low inflation (selling inflation breakevens) – Dominique Dwor-Frecaut (Los Angeles) Selling US 20y rates – SN Vaidya (London) Buying pound sterling (GBP/USD) – Eric Zijdenbos (London) Buying GBP/USD upside options – Arun Sundaram (London) Buying FX volatility – Karl Massey (London) Buying Swedish Krona (selling EUR/SEK) – Ken Dickson (Edinburgh) Buying Chilean equities (iShares MSCI Chile ETF [ECH]) – Alex Schober (NY) Buying Turkey (FX and equities) – Philipp Birkan (Vienna)
Michael Auerbach On Launching A Cannabis SPAC With Jay-Z
Michael Auerbach is the Founder of Subversive Capital, which is dedicated to investing in radical companies. He sits on the Board of Directors of Tilray, Inc. – the first Nasdaq-listed global cannabis company – and holds several directorships with companies that Subversive invests in. He also serves as a Senior Vice President at Albright Stonebridge Group, the global consulting firm chaired by former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. In this podcast, we discuss: Launching a SPAC (SBVCF) with Jay-Z for the cannabis sector The bullish case for the California cannabis market Why Canada’s legalization of cannabis has still seen illicit trade increase The financing challenge for cannabis companies Why brands are where the value is How the Biden administration will accelerate legalisation The political and cultural reasons for banning cannabis over alcohol The Portugal case of decriminalisation Books that influenced Michael: Far From the Tree (Solomon), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan), Sapiens (Harari), History of Sexuality (Foucault), Glas (Derrida), King Leopold’s Ghost (Hochschild), Malcolm X, Say Nothing (Keefe)
Ashley Lenihan On The Politics Of Cross-Border M&A, CFIUS And Sensitive Sectors
Dr Ashley Lenihan is a leading expert on the relationship between foreign direct investment and national security and is the author of ‘Balancing Power without Weapons: State Intervention into Cross-Border M&A’. She is the Head of Policy and Engagement at the British Academy of Management (BAM), a visiting Fellow at the London School of Economic’s Centre for International Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In the podcast, we discuss: Why countries block foreign investment/M&A deals Types of measures used to block or mitigate deals Evolution of US policy on foreign investment (CFIUS, FIRMA) Examples of US vetoes Will Biden change CFIUS approach? How data is new front for regulating foreign investment The unusually broad scope of new UK regulation Advice to companies who engage in cross-border M&A Books that influenced Ashley: Theory of International Politics (Waltz), National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (Hirschman), Power & Interdependence (Keohane and Nye) and Isolationism (Kupchan)
Jim Leitner On Growth vs Value, Digital Options And Bitcoin
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. One of our most popular guests, legendary Jim Leitner, returns on this episode. He gives his take on the big picture themes of the day, how best to implement trades and much more, specifically we discuss: Why the rotation trade from growth to value may not work The importance of looking at the structural trends in undervalued sectors Why today’s tech boom is different from the dot-com mania The problem with 60:40 portfolios. The importance of real estate investments How low bond yields change how to value equities The power of digital options in implementing views and the bullish CNY story The ‘risk arbitrage’ of vol-focused market makers and trend focused investors The importance of limited trades a year The relationship between demographics and equities and the positive Japan story Reshoring and smart manufacturing The potential of bitcoin Advice for early career, and recommended books Checklist Manifesto (Gawande) and Superforecasting (Tetlock)
Professor Kevin Dowd On The Problem With MMT, Banking’s Lack Of Capital And Free Markets
In this show, I talk with Professor Kevin Dowd. He is professor of finance and economics at Durham University and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. He has written extensively on the history and theory of free banking, central banking, financial regulation, and monetary systems. His books include Private Money: The Path to Monetary Stability, Laissez‐Faire Banking and Alchemists of Loss: How Modern Finance and Government Intervention Crashed the Financial System. In this podcast we discuss: Was government intervention in 2020 the right thing to do? The capital problems of the banking and insurance sectors Why free banking (no/light regulation) works The problem with MMT Why debt levels matter How negative rates could hurt
Mickey Down And Konrad Kay On Their New HBO Finance Show Industry
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. I’m a big fan of the new HBO show Industry. It follows a group of young graduates competing for permanent positions at fictional investment bank, Pierpoint & Co. It’s the most authentic depiction of a trading floor that I have seen on a TV show, so I had to get the creators of the show, Mickey Down and Konrad Kay, on to my podcast show. In this podcast we discuss: Their backgrounds working at investment banks Where they filmed the trading floor Why they avoided storylines like insider trading How they captured the details of sales/trading and M&A What the show tells us about young people today Will there be a season 2?
Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam On Ending COVID, Vaccine Complacency And Business Responsibility
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam. He is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute and the founder of EndCoronavirus. He received his SB and PhD in physics from MIT in 1978 and 1984 respectively. Since the late 1980s he has contributed to founding the field of complex systems science, introducing fundamental mathematical rigor and real world application, ranging from the global financial crisis to stopping the 2014 Ebola outbreak. He has advised the CDC, the Chairman’s Action Group at the Pentagon, the National Security Council, the National Counter Terrorism Council, and other government organizations, NGOs, and corporations. In this podcast we discuss: Yaneer’s January paper with Nassim Taleb and Joseph Norman on the coming COVID crisis Using complexity science to understand pandemics The importance of restricting travel and bringing cases to zero The mistake of countries that lift restrictions before zero cases Why the West managed COVID poorly compared to Asia and Africa The poor comparison to seasonal flu The economic benefits of aggressive action vs cost of soft lockdowns Why the vaccine doesn’t mean countries should lift restrictions How investors and the business community can help end the COVID crisis