Charles Goodhart on Money Printing, Inflation and Ageing
Charles Goodhart CBE is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the LSE, having previously been its Deputy Director. Previously, he had worked at the Bank of England for seventeen years including as Chief Adviser and later In 1997 as independent members of the Bank of England’s new Monetary Policy Committee until May 2000. He is the developer of Goodhart’s law, an economic law named after him. He has written numerous books including the graduate monetary textbook, ‘Money, Information and Uncertainty’, ‘The Regulatory Response to the Financial Crisis’ (2009) and most recently ‘The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival’ (2020). In the podcast, we talk about: Importance of understanding money demand and the money multiplier Should central banks target monetary aggregates and house prices? The problem with the Fed’s new inflation targeting objectives. Understanding China’s integration to the global economy The challenges of an ageing population Factors that depressed inflation are now turning Why didn’t ageing Japan see inflation Why demographics in the US are inflationary Can India and Africa provide the necessary demographic boost to offset DM ageing? Can Tech replace the missing working age population? How to fix the global debt problem Books that influenced Charles: A Monetary History of the United States (Friedman, Schwartz), Golden Fetters (Eichengreen), the works of Dennis Robertson, James Tobin, Charles Kindleberger, and Robert Eisler
Professor Adrian Williams on Everything You Wanted to Know About Sleep
Dr. Adrian Williams is the UK’s first Professor of Sleep Medicine. Adrian graduated from University College, London, UK, and after a lectureship at The Cardiothoracic Institute, Brompton Hospital in 1975 took up an appointment at Harvard, Boston, USA, followed by an invitation to University of California (UCLA) in 1977. In 1985 Professor Williams became tenured Professor of Medicine at UCLA and co-Director of the UCLA Sleep Laboratory. In 1994 he returned to London where he established the Sleep Disorders Centre at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, in addition to his role as Medical Director of The London Sleep Centre, Harley St. Professor Williams hold’s the UK’s first Chair in Sleep Medicine at Kings College, London, UK. In the podcast, we talk about: Why we sleep Impact of lack of sleep on decision-making Types of sleep non-REM and REM How much should we sleep? Does catch-up sleep on the weekend help? What triggers sleep Sleep apnea and snoring Sleep and temperature Managing jet lag Melatonin, sleeping pills, caffeine and alcohol Tips for better sleep Books that influenced Adrian: Sleep and Wakefulness (Kleitman, 1939), The Promise Of Sleep (Dement), Genius: Richard Feynman and Modern Physics (Gleick), Surely You’re Joking Mr Feynman (Feynman), The Code Breaker (Isaacson), The Double Helix (Watson)
Former UK Chancellor Sajid Javid On Inflation, Climate Change and Post-Brexit Britain
Sajid is currently the Conservative Member of Parliament for Bromsgrove. He has held two of the four ‘Great Offices Of State’ in the UK government: Chancellor of the Exchequer and Home Secretary. He was first elected to Parliament in 2010. Before that, he worked at Deutsche Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank. At Deutsche Bank, he helped build their emerging market businesses. Sajid was born in Rochdale (Manchester) and was raised in Bristol. He read Economic and Politics at Exeter University. In the podcast, we talk about: How has the UK handled the pandemic so far? The UK fiscal outlook – spending focuses and taxes How pandemic shocks differ from wars Why inflation could pick up The importance of climate change and the UK track record Results of the UK’s Integrated Review and centrality of climate change Why biodiversity also matters Will UK parliament’s unanimous support for climate change policy continue? UK’s global role in a post-Brexit world New measures to attract international talent to UK Possible future global alliances
Themos Fiotakis on Mispriced US Stimulus, Inflation Spikes and Neglected EM
Themos is the Head of Research at the macro hedge fund, Glen Point Capital. His previous roles included being Head of Fundamental Strategy at UBS and Head of EM FX Strategy at Goldman Sachs. In the podcast, we talk about: How investors are not understanding the impact of the US stimulus Will price increases be transitory? How healthy is the US labour market? Important shifts in China policy How to play the Euro-area recovery Investors are missing key EM trends Favourite EM markets Books that influenced Themos: Economics in Perspective (Galbraith) and A Theory of Justice (Rawls)
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on US Labour Supply, Inflation and Timing the Bond Sell-Off
Dominique is one of my favourite macro thinkers and economists – she’s so good, we hired her to work for Macro Hive. As for her background, she’s worked at Bridgewater, Barclays and RBS. And before that she worked on policy and research at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank. In the podcast, we talk about: The US labour supply problem and its impact on growth for the rest of 2021 The difference between Democrat and Republican states on COVID Can inflation move higher? How income inequality drives asset markets and the economy The impact of more active fiscal policy on growth and inflation Outlook on Germany and China Timing the next big US bond sell-off Books that influenced Dominique: Radical Uncertainty (King, Kay), The Social Conquest of Earth (Wilson)
Phil Suttle on Coming High Inflation, Goods Recessions and Fed in Play
Phil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about: COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s. Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets. High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023. Fed will be in play sooner than expected. Goods sector could see ‘recession’ in 2021 on supply constraints. Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling. EM local markets appear mispriced. Climate change policies lead to more investment and higher prices. UK in secular decline. Book that has recently engaged Phil Suttle: John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman (Skidelsky).
Wolfgang Münchau on Germany’s Political Risks, Fiscal Stimulus and Euro Instability
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Wolfgang Münchau is co-founder and director of Eurointelligence. He was a Financial Times columnist from 2003 until 2020 and co-founder and editor-in-chief of Financial Times Deutschland. He is the author of several books, including Meltdown Years. In this podcast, we discuss: The unpopularity of Germany’s governing party, the CDU and its new leader Laschet. Laschet’s support for the coal industry. The popularity of sister party CSU’s leader Söder and his new economy focus. The possibility of a CDU and CSU split. Why are Greens so popular in Germany? The fiscal implications of Greens in power. Germany’s constitutional constraints on fiscal policy. Why far-right AfD has performed poorly recently. The mismanagement of COVID and the political impact. Does the EU Recovery Fund signal a common EU fiscal policy? Will EU climate policy be successful? Book that influenced Wolfgang: The Rise and Fall of Weimar Democracy (Mommsen), Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World (MacMillan).
Jeff Snider on Deflation, Central Bank Failure, and Understanding Money
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Jeff is Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners. He started his career in portfolio management and equity research before focusing on broad investment research since the 2000s. In this podcast, we discuss: Do central banks believe in QE? Why QE didn’t generate inflation after GFC. What is money and can central banks control it? The importance of banks. What caused the 1970s inflation. The rise of the offshore dollar (euro-dollar) system. Why fiscal stimulus won’t work. The problem with market fragility and illiquidity. Central banks care about equity markets. What could generate inflation? Book that influenced Jeff: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz)
Boris Vladimirov on Inflation Permanence, European Banks and BRICS Outlook
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. In this podcast, we discuss: Inflation outlook – the Europe surprise – inflation persistence. Will fiscal spending crowd out private spending? The best Europe trade. Which yields matter for EM. How important is China’s deleveraging goals? Where next for Chinese currency and bonds? Outlook for BRICS countries and which markets to buy. Machine learning vs regressions. Books that influenced Boris: Twenty-Eight Years In Wall Street (Clews), Economic Interdependence and War (Copeland), The Ashtray (Morris) and Twelve Virtues of Rationality (Yudkowsky). Current market views on bonds and equities.