US equities | Big bear capitulates
Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley and Marko Kolanovic at JP Morgan both capitulate on shorts… finally!
US equities | Martin Wolf | 100 trials for 100 days at $100
46 spot taken and 54 left for the 100 day Speevr trial offer
US equities | Why are stocks up again?
What makes a ‘good’ market contra-indicator? S&P 500 re-enters overbought territory
China stimulus | Rising SST | LinkedIn jobs | AI supremacy
Hindsight analysts once again prove as useful as Anne Frank’s drum kit. This time with a less silly investment thesis. LinkedIn labor market data. China stimulus. Econ 101 exam. Trader’s classification revisited.
US equities | Who called it right (so far) this year
How would you do in an Econ 101 exam today? Brett Nelson and team at GSWM made the most accurate forecasts for 2023.
Inflation | Settling the transitory vs. non-transitory debate
No degree in Economics is required to know inflation tends to mean-revert
Market outlook | Superforecasters vs. Domain Experts
A near miss avoided again. Anticipating the next excuse by trapped shorts
US CPI | Team Harvard & Goldman win again
Jason Furman of Harvard notes erroneous Cleveland Fed nowcasting we previously mentioned.
US CPI | 4 scenarios & probability estimates
We consider 4 possible outcomes for the June (2023) CPI number, together with our estimated probabilities and expected market impact. Downside inflation surprised more likely.
US recession | Inflation | Krugman does it again
Once again Paul Krugman uses alternative semi-annual inflation measures to argue his case.