Category: Macro

EUROPE/MACRO: Balancing the vaccines-lockdown-economics triangle

  • While planning and logistical challenges might explain the variation in vaccination rates across Europe, it is too early to draw conclusions about these differences.
  • A majority of the population still supports lockdowns, but compliance with restrictions and certain groups’ opposition are rising challenges.
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MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19

Below is this year’s first summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country’s vaccination strategy.… Read the rest

WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

China is fighting the worst Covid-19 outbreak since March 2020. Italy’s Prime Minister faces a tougher test in the Senate after winning a confidence vote in the lower house. In Germany, Armin Laschet is expected to be confirmed as the new leader of the Christian Democrats.… Read the rest

WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

China has approved Sinopharm’s Covid-19 vaccine for general use. The new border arrangement between the UK and the EU will be tested after the holiday season. Ghana’s president will officially start his second term.… Read the rest

WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS

China appears to be pushing back against new US sanctions. Germany’s Christian Democrats will choose a new party leader. In Argentina, three major agricultural unions will start a three-day strike. … Read the rest

Comment – How to look at the RCEP

  • The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a large trade agreement.
  • While it falls short of the US-inspired CPTTP, it will bring a range of benefits.
  • Particularly important will be whether the US and India choose to become associated.
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Economic Risks

Please find attached the January issue of our monthly Economic Risks. Below is a top-level summary:

  • A rampaging virus and lockdowns extend secondary dips
  • Immunisation programmes take time to reach critical mass
  • Bankruptcies, joblessness, poverty, and inequality escalate
  • Inflation falls further and remains uncomfortably low
  • Unconventional macro policy support is further extended
  • Real activity takes many years to approach prior trend